Low birth rate stays below the expected level

The number of babies born in August this year decreased by 12.8 percent compared to the same period last year. While the number of newborns hit the lowest record every year, the month-to-month drop was even bigger in August than in July with -6.7 percent. In fact, this year saw the biggest drop for August since 2008. It is a shocking figure that shows that South Korea’s low birth rate is decreasing at a faster pace than expected.

The total fertility rate, which has been on a steep decline, hit 0.8 last year and dropped to 0.7 in the second quarter of this year. More people respond that they won’t have children in various surveys and the number of marriages, which seemed to increase following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, is on the decrease again. The number of marriages in August this year reduced by over 1,000 cases compared to a year ago, hitting an all-time low. A reduction in birth as a result seems inevitable. If the current trend continues, the country will reach an unprecedented low level of birth rate below 0.7 in the world. With the fertility rate in Seoul having already reached 0.59, the bottom is unknown.

According to the National Assembly Budget Office’s report, the youth population under 14 will halve by 2040 compared to 2020 if the birth rate does not rebound. A reduction in young generations combined with rapid aging will cause the loss of growth momentum and create a vicious cycle across the economy and society. South Korea’s potential growth rate predicted by the OECD dropped below one percent for the first time in history.

While the government and businesses are presenting various measures against the low birth rate, they are often ineffective or short-sighted. The special committee on population crisis of the National Assembly has not held a meeting for the last six months, and the budget of 280 trillion won to address the low fertility issue is in fact lower than those of advanced countries in reality. Fifty-four percent of workers report that they are not allowed to use parental leave freely and HR-related discrimination for childbirth still exists.

What’s more problematic is the delayed progress of the three major reforms for labor, education, and pension, which are considered the key to addressing the low fertility rate and aging issues. Young people are pointing to the overwhelming burden of private education expenses and the labor environment that undermines job creation and work flexibility as major reasons to avoid childbirth. The pension whose depletion is getting closer and closer burdens them as well. If these areas, which will bring fundamental structural changes, are left unresolved, the crisis of the ‘extinction of the state’ cannot be prevented. In order to prevent the crisis that is coming at a faster pace than expected, we should move more quickly.