The world watches the war in Ukraine in silence. They are moved by the Ukraine soldiers and people fighting back and root for their courage as they wonder: when and how will the war end? What were in the minds of the Russians when they invaded Ukraine? Is Putin out of his mind or was it simply misjudgment? Is this how this will end for the Russian dictator? How will the world change after the war?
Many experts give opinions on how the war will unfold, but most of them are predictions. Information worthy of accurate analysis is still unknown. Ukraine is fighting back, but the road to victory is still risky and far away. Russia is not doing well, but its size cannot go unnoticed. Putin will not step back unless he sees tangible results. Even if Russia achieves in the war, it will likely suffer for the long term. Even if Ukraine surrenders and Russia tries to build a pro-Russian government, it will not be able to govern the country. It will have to station tens of thousands of military troops, which will not guarantee long-term governance. Russia will not be able to withhold massive military expenses, aftermath of the war and lack of people’s support of the war.
If Russia withdraws troops, Ukraine will have to rebuild itself from the ashes of the war. The way ahead may be tough, but it can become a blessing in disguise. The war will become a turning point that shows how deeply people share human rights values and despise abuse of powers by strong nations.
Some are concerned about the U.S. retreating as its role of the world police and China abusing powers, but in reality, the opposite may take place. The U.S. has not given up the role as the police, it has gained a partner. Germany will rearm itself, increasing military power for Europe. Thanks to Russia, Europe will realize that arms reduction and peace do not have to co-exist. More Eastern European countries will demand to join the EU and NATO, and EU may have to change its high ideals and principles that have been in place. The U.S. has been able to focus on affairs in the Pacific. Such changes do not promise good outcomes only. The future is unpredictable, after all. Perhaps we are seeing the real 21st century finally take off.