Don`t delay missile launch, give it up

North Korea will likely postpone the launch of a long-range missile that had been planned between Monday and Saturday this week. A spokesman for the (North) Korea Space Technology Committee said Saturday morning, “We are cautiously considering adjusting the launch schedule due to a string of issues that have been raised.” Pyongyang had been quickly taking necessary steps for the launch, including informing the International Maritime Organization of the projected locations where the phase rockets would fall. As such, adjustment of the schedule is no different from deciding to postpone the launch. Since the North has never given up test-firing a missile that it had announced, the launch will proceed but on a different date. In South Korea, the presidential office said in an analysis that a serious technical defect had been found, adding that the North has not changed its plan due to external pressure.

On April 13, North Korea test-fired a long-range missile that exploded in midair 2 minutes and 15 minutes after liftoff. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un suffered utter humiliation due to the failure, as he sought to use the launch as a congratulatory gun salute two days before the centennial birthday of his late grandfather and North Korea founder Kim Il Sung. The launch was so grand a failure that the North, which generally mentions nothing that does not serve its interests, admitted to the debacle just four hours after. As such, many analysts say the latest attempt at a missile launch just eight months after the failure is a reckless bet. Other experts also warn of the risk of a test-fire in freezing winter weather. The planned launch is meant to reinforce loyalty on the first anniversary of the death of former North Korean leader Kim Jong Il (Dec. 17) and the first anniversary of Kim Jong Un’s inauguration as his father`s successor (Dec. 30). The North Korean military has prematurely sought to push for the initiative despite not being fully prepared, but has now delayed the project. Next year also has countless days for the North to hold commemorations and launch a missile as a gun salute.

Now that the North is facing a variable that it cannot easily overcome and given the project`s delay, it should coolly consider the situations in and around the country. If Pyongyang pushes ahead with the launch, it has more to lose than gain. Kim Jong Un should reflect why the U.S. displayed its commitment to improve bilateral ties by pledging 400,000 tons of nutritional aid in February. Washington made the offer because of Pyongyang`s moratorium on missile launches.

China is urging North Korea to be more considerate in its behavior, saying a missile launch would be a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. Beijing`s stance differs from that in the past. Voices in the U.S. and Japan are demanding that sanctions on the Stalinist country be toughened to the level of Iran or stronger. No country or international organization wants to provide humanitarian aid, including food, to a belligerent North Korea that seeks to test-fire twice a long-range missile that costs 350 million U.S. dollars each, excluding the construction cost of the launch base. If the launch proceeds and ensuingly provokes heated international reactions, the Kim Jong Un government will face a dead end. The North can survive not by delaying the launch, but giving it up altogether.