Ruling Party Candidates Lead in Seoul Metro Area

Local elections candidates of the ruling Grand National Party are leading races in the Seoul metropolitan area according to polls.

Since the election campaign was officially launched May 20, the announcement of the results of the investigation into the cause of the Cheonan sinking and the first anniversary of former President Roh Moo-hyun’s death had been expected to affect the elections. In general, however, this has not been the case.

In a survey conducted Monday through Wednesday, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon of the ruling party (50.8 percent) was well ahead of his rival Han Myeong-sook of the main opposition Democratic Party (30 percent) for the reins of the capital. Oh’s lead widened to 20.8 percentage points from 17.4 in the first survey conducted May 13-15 shortly after candidate registration. Among active voters who said they will definitely vote, Oh had support of 53 percent and Han 31.7 percent.

In Gyeonggi Province, the lead of ruling party candidate and incumbent governor Kim Moon-soo over Rhyu Si-min of the minor People’s Participation Party widened further. Kim’s support edged up from 44.1 percent May 13-15 to 46.7 percent this week. Rhyu’s popularity slightly fell from 33.2 percent to 29.7 percent over the same period.

Accordingly, the gap between the two candidates has increased from 10.9 percentage points to 17.

Rhyu beat the Democratic Party’s Kim Jin-pyo May 13 to become the unified candidate of both parties, but his popularity has proven lower than expected.

In a survey of active voters saying they will vote next week, Kim Moon-soo (49.6 percent) had a commanding lead over Rhyu (30.8 percent). In three surveys of active voters conducted by The Dong-A Ilbo, Kim’s popularity has changed little but Rhyu’s has fallen from 36.7 percent May 13-15 to 30.8 percent this week.

In the race for Incheon mayor, the ruling party’s Ahn Sang-soo and the main opposition party’s Song Young-gil are battling it out. Ahn (45.4 percent) has a lead of nearly 11 percentage points over Song (34.6 percent).

The gap between the two candidates narrowed from 9.1 percentage points May 13-15 to eight May 21-22, but has widened again. In surveys of active voters, however, the gap between the two candidates has narrowed from 11.7 percentage points in the first survey to 8.1 in the most recent survey.

egija@donga.com