Clinton Needs Decisive Win in PA to Stay in Race

Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama faced off yesterday in a make-or-break contest for Clinton in the Pennsylvania primary. Most experts said Clinton needed a double-digit win to stay in the race.

Clinton trails Obama 1,498 to 1,644 in overall delegates according to CNN, and if she fails to decisively win Pennsylvania, she will likely have to drop out of the race.

A slew of surveys released a day ahead of the crucial primary showed Clinton leading Obama by six to ten percentage points. With 158 delegates up for grabs, voting in Pennsylvania started at 7 a.m. and closed at 8 p.m.

The Dong-A Ilbo has taken part in a media tour sponsored by the Foreign Press Club of the U.S. State Department. Thirty media organizations around the world were invited to interview three U.S. election experts in Pennsylvania.

▽ Political Mathematics

Abraham Amoros, executive director of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, predicted a win for Clinton, but also that no less important than winning was by how much.

A double-digit win will give her momentum to continue in the race, he said, but if the margin is under five percent, the party must seriously consider whether to continue her campaign.

Gene Barr, government relations vice president of the Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry and a registered lobbyist of the U.S. State Department, also echoed Amoros’ opinion. Barr said that with less than a five percent gap, the Clinton camp is likely to suffer drastic declines in donations and volunteers that are critical to continuing its campaign.

An opposing view, however, came from Terry Madonna, a political science professor at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, PA. Madonna said a narrow win could still keep Clinton in the race.

Clinton hopes that Obama makes irrevocable mistakes and that they make Democrats believe he is not the candidate to defeat the Republican Party’s John McCain, he said.

Madonna also said this is why Clinton has refused to drop out of the race despite her virtually slim chance of winning in the remaining primaries.

The Clinton camp is apparently waiting for Obama to be dogged by disasters he created himself, he added, citing Obama’s comments on small towns in the state.

Obama has angered Pennsylvanians in small and medium-size cities by saying, “And it’s not surprising then they (white blue-collar workers) get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy toward people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

▽ Politics of Geography

Pennsylvania defies a unified campaign strategy because it consists of three areas having different characteristics.

In the state’s southeastern area that includes Philadelphia, African Americans comprise 15.8 percent of the population, much higher than the state average of 10.4 percent, and the residents in that area are better off. The southwestern area that includes Pittsburgh, however, is home to many factories and has large numbers of the elderly and blue-collar workers.

The central region consists of mostly farmers who have supported Republican candidates in previous elections.

Professor Madonna said entrepreneurs who made a fortune in trade and white-collar workers make up a large portion of Philadelphia’s population, while the southwestern area has many voters pessimistic over free trade.

Lobbyist Barr agreed, saying most people west of the Appalachian Mountains, which divides Pennsylvania in two, are conservative like those in nearby Ohio. But those on the eastern side are relatively liberal and have voted for Democratic candidates, he said.

Barr said Obama’s good fight depends on how many votes he wins in Philadelphia and neighboring areas, where 44.5 percent of the eligible voters reside.

Democratic candidates have won Pennsylvania four times in a row since 1992, but the party’s lead over the Republican Party has narrowed from 10 percent in 1992 and 1996 to four percent in 2000 and three percent in 2004.

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