Conservative Party Seeks to Dominate Political Arena

The conservative Grand National Party seeks to win 168 parliamentary seats in the general elections Wednesday to dominate all standing committees of the National Assembly. But the party needs just 157 seats to do so.

The single-member electorate system has been in force since the 1988 general elections. In the 2004 general elections, the then ruling Uri Party secured more than half of the seats. No party in the country’s history, however, has dominated all standing committees of the National Assembly.

If the GNP secures more than 165 seats in Wednesday’s general elections, it could dominate political leadership, and could still do so even with 150 to 160 seats.

Given post-election public sentiment and expectations from political circles, however, a win of between 150 and 160 cannot be considered a political victory for the party.

Though unlikely, if the party wins between 140 and 149 seats, it will probably attract independent lawmakers and winning candidates from smaller parties to secure a parliamentary majority. In this case, the Pro-Park Alliance, or a group of former GNP lawmakers loyal to ex-party leader Park Geun-hye, and the Liberty Forward Party will be wooed by larger parties.

Securing less than 140 seats will deal the GNP a crushing defeat and prompt large-scale political reform. In this case, the ruling party will likely set up an alliance of conservative parties with the Liberty Forward Party and the Pro-Park Alliance.

If the GNP secures more than 100 seats, the liberal United Democratic Party can keep the ruling party in check by preventing a revision of the Constitution.

If the UDP secures more than 100 seats, it can raise its own voice if the ruling party attempts to revise the Constitution. The GNP, which secured 121 seats in the last general elections four years ago, prevented the then ruling Uri Party (152 seats) from abolishing the National Security Law.

If the UDP fails to secure more than 100 seats, it cannot keep the ruling party in check. Worse, party members might ask who needs to assume responsibility for the defeat and this could divide the party along political lines.

jkmas@donga.com sys1201@donga.com