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Publication of Final Presidential Polls Due Up

Posted December. 13, 2007 03:07,   


Today and tomorrow, newspapers and TV stations will publish their final presidential poll results. The South Korean election law prohibits publication of results from the polls conducted after yesterday.

The Dong-A plans to release its survey results tomorrow, which were tallied yesterday.

Various recent polls show the rising support for Grand National Party (GNP) candidate Lee Myung-bak after the DA’s office cleared him of various allegations arising out of the BBK scandal. Lee is now leading his two major opponents by a 25–30% margin.

Experts believe that the latest surveys will reflect the actual results on the Election Day, since they are being tallied about a week prior to it.

Unlike this time, in the last 2002 election, the law imposed a 22-day ban on the publication. In the last election, then GNP candidate Lee Hoi-chang and then governing-party candidate Roh Moo-hyun battled against each other neck and neck, and the ban confused voters by depriving them of the access to the accurate information on the race.

Myongji University professor Kim Hyeong-jun explains, “Voters have never changed the leading candidate since the 13th presidential election. Their stances were accurately reflected in the last polls of each election. The same rule has also applied to undecided voters. Scholars agree that the percentage of undecided voters projected in the final polls has turned out to be true in elections.”

Furthermore, the majority of experts agree that the approval rating of each candidate for the presidential election will influence their political direction up until the upcoming general election in April 2008.

GNP candidate Lee Myung-bak has recently set up a strategy titled “2055,” meaning that he wants to win the election with 55% or more support by a margin of more than 20% apart from the second place winner.

On the other hand, United New Democratic Party (UNDP) candidate Chung Dong-young is trying to portray himself as the only legitimate representative of liberal political groups while continuing his efforts to form an alliance with the liberal candidates of other parties.

Independent contender Lee Hoi-chang will concentrate his remaining seven days of campaigning on his strongholds in the Gyeongsang and Chungcheong regions. Lee will court the former region, while his new alliance partner Shim Dae-pyung will campaign in the latter for Lee.