[Opinion] "Weather Corruption"

In “Back to the Future,” a movie with novel concepts of time travel, Marty (Michael J. Fox) travels to the future. Chased by villains, he escapes a difficult situation by predicting what the weather will be like in a few seconds. The movie supposes that weather can be predicted by the second in the future. This can never happen. Even a supercomputer cannot predict where smoke from a cigarette will go, exactly.

Since the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) now has two supercomputers, its forecasts have had greater accuracy than before. Still, it often forecasts incorrectly, which annoys people. Earlier this year, the KMA made an official apology to the nation for its wrong forecasts. Last year, it failed to predict a sudden yellow dust attack. This year, it falsely predicted heavy snowfalls and cold spells. Many people who cancelled their picnic plans on weekends due to incorrect weather forecasts felt duped when the weather turned out to be warm.

It has also been revealed that KMA employees collaborated with suppliers and fabricated documents to buy inappropriate observatory equipment for lower-air observation. The equipment was of poor quality. High-ranking officials forced their subordinates to buy products from a certain supplier, which damaged the KMA’s ability to predict the weather.

For an accurate weather forecast, sophisticated measurement models and super computers are important. Also important is accurate observation data such as atmosphere, temperature, and wind speed for modeling purposes. Ten supercomputers cannot make an accurate prediction if the data are inaccurate. Weather information has a large impact on economic activities and industrial safety. “Weather corruption” is a betrayal of the Korean people, who have to change their schedules as weather changes.

Jeong Seong-hee, Editorial Writer, shchung@donga.com