Former Mayor Lee’s Approval Rating Exceeds Those of Other Candidates

Grand National Party members, who will cast vote in the GNP primary next month, support former Seoul Mayor Lee Myeong-bak over Park Geun-hye. 46.6 percent of members favor Lee, while 40.1 percent support Park.

The GNP delegates show more support for Lee as well. 52.5 percent of delegates promise to vote for Lee, while 38.5 percent show loyalty to Park.

The figures are quoted in a survey report conducted by the Dong-a Ilbo and Korea Research Center. The survey was the 10th of its kind and asked 1,000 GNP members and 1,000 GNP delegates each.

The report also confirms that 85.6 percent of GNP members and 96.2 percent of delegates plan to cast their votes in the party primary.

The GNP primary determines whom to nominate as official GNP candidate based on the vote of 46,196 delegates (20 percent), 69,496 members (30 percent), and 60,496 ordinary people (30 percent). In addition, the party also factors in the approval ratings of each candidate (20 percent).

The latest survey on approval rating, which took place Saturday, points to the widening gap between Lee and Park. 38.3 percent of the 1,000 respondents favored Lee, and 25.0 percent of them approved Park. In the previous ninth survey, which was carried out two weeks ago, the gap between them remained within a 10 percent range, or 9.2 percent.

Among the minor presidential runners, former Gyeonggi Governor Sohn Hak-gyu ranked top with 8.9 percent approval, followed by former Prime Minster Lee Hae-chan (2.1 percent), Jeong Dong-yeong (1.9 percent), Kwon Yeong-gil (1.5 percent), Cho Sun-hyeong (1.2 percent), and former Prime Minister Han Myeong-suk (1.0 percent).

Even in a hypothetical race only between former Mayor Lee and former Governor Sohn, Lee beat Sohn by a 60.2 percent to 27.1 percent margin. Further, Sohn would not win over Park Geun-hye, either. When asked whom to vote between Park and Sohn, 57.3 percent of the respondents favored Park. Only 32.8 percent of them answered they would vote for Sohn.

The survey was conducted over the phone, randomly choosing samples out of each of the allotted groups of the GNP electoral college. It also took into consideration various factors, such as demographic features and gender distribution, in selecting survey respondents out of the general public. Both sets of the survey have a sampling error of ±3.1 percent points. 29.7 percent of the GNP members and 37.9 percent of the delegates answered the questions, while 14.7 percent of citizens participated.

mindy@donga.com