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Ministry to Issue Bird Flu Predictions

Posted October. 10, 2005 03:03,   


According to a report from a government institution, bird influenza could possibly kill around 440,000 in Korea in a worst-case scenario. The government is planning to issue a prediction on bird influenza on October 14.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) said on October 9, “Winter season bird migration from the north will be likely to start around October 20, including birds from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, where bird influenza was found. We will issue a prediction on bird influenza on October 14 to check spread of it through migratory birds.”

The MAF will take preventive measures against bird influenza in migratory bird-frequented areas and the Civilian Control Line by designating the period of November 2005 through February 2006 as a special prevention period.

Predictions are issued when outbreaks of bird influenza seasonally become highly possible, and are changed into warnings when bird influenza actually breaks out.

Meanwhile, according to a simulation report the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) gave to Grand National Party member Ahn Myoung-ock, a total of 441,094 out of 13,757,628 persons with bird influenza died in a worst-case scenario assumed in which no treatment or quarantine measures were taken when the bird influenza broke out.

It was also analyzed that if 10 percent of infected persons were treated and 20 percent of them were quarantined (with basic preventative measures), a total of 143,311 out of 9,239,943 persons infected died; if 20 percent were treated and 30 percent were quarantined (with middle-class preventative measures), 118,230 out of 6,063,451 persons died, and if 30 percent were treated and 50 percent were quarantined (with high-class preventative measures), 92,420 out of 3,391,320 persons died.

The KCDC explained that the current class of preventative measures in Korea was known to stand between middle and high due to a lack of quarantine facilities.

legman@donga.com mindy@donga.com