“Signs of Internal Breakdown in North Korea’s Regime”

The public safety investigation agency under the Japanese Ministry of Justice analyzed that North Korea has begin to show signs of an internal breakdown, such as an increase in crime rate, an increase in the economic difference between rich and poor, and slackness in regimentation.

On Saturday, according to the Japanese press, in an “internal and external state of affairs review and prospects report” that analyzes internal and external safety characteristics for this year, the public safety investigation agency explained on matter of North Korean state affairs that “social disorder is expanding because of rapid inflation triggered by the economic reform started in 2002.”

Also, they pointed out that “the country has started to show signs of regime instability as there is an economic polarization among government officials because of economic reform and information inflows from outside.”

Furthermore, according to the report, after acknowledging profit-making activities by individuals and corporations through economic management improvement measures enacted in 2002, the North Korean economy was somewhat on the road to recovery. But because of the rise in social disorder, the economic difference between the rich and poor has increased along with absences without due notice, larceny, and robbery.

As a result, it is forecasted that conflicts among leaders are most likely to occur surrounding the issue of succession as Chairman Kim Jong-il’s authority is becoming uncertain, instigating dissatisfaction in the current regime.

As evidence, the public safety investigation agency pointed out not only the reshuffling of the Labor Party’s managing staff but also the current movement concerning the successor issue.

Won-Jae Park parkwj@donga.com