[Opinion] Birth Rate at 1.19

Thomas Malthus’ “Theory on Population,” published in 1798, shocked the European academia when it was published. Malthus shook the very roots of a common belief among European scholars that “the number of the population was a source of national strength and a barometer for happiness” with a very simple logic. Malthus provided the grim prediction that the explosive increase in human population would bring about a catastrophe. Most optimists were at a lost for words when faced with the logical assertion that though population numbers increase geometrically by “1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32…,” and food increases in arithmetic numbers of “1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6….”

Malthus’ theory was much criticized after his death. Karl Marx was among his critics. That may be why Mao Zedong, a follower of Marx, pursued an anti-Malthus population policy after gaining power. Mao Zedong’s logic was much simpler than Malthus’. He asserted that the economy improved with more population, for, while humans only had one mouth to eat with, they had two hands to work with. Later, China came to realize the adverse effects of an explosive increase in population and changed its stance to implement a population-curbing policy, but China’s population of 600 million in 1949 had already doubled in 46 years.

Though with opposite results, the Korean government was just as blind regarding population. The slogan of “Unchecked birth will make us into beggars” in the 1960s are understandable as most couples had more than five children at the time. Slogans such as “Even two is too many,” “Honey! Let’s just have one,” “Even with one child each, our streets will be full” were hung on every wall and telephone poles across the nation in the 1980s. Maybe the slogans were effective, for with the birth rate at 1.17 last year and 1.19 this year, it seems that the era of having just one child has indeed arrived.

However, low birth rates are now the cause of much concern. Of course, as it has been proven in experience and in theory that excessively low birth rates are economic obstructions, there is a need for birth promotion policies. Nonetheless, there is a sense of unease due to a lack of confidence as to whether the government has made long-term plans with sufficient consideration of the two sides of population control this time. The people need explanations as to the solutions regarding Korea’s narrow land space and unemployment problems. The government should “plan” with long-term perspectives before demanding “family planning” from the people.

Cheon Kwang-am, Editorial Writer, iam@donga.com