UNSC Members in Hot Water

Members of the UN Security Council are put in agony as the US, Britain and Spain submitted to the UN Security Council a new resolution urging an approval of using military power against Iraq. They have to decide whether to green-light the resolution. But no matter how they decide, it would cause a huge repercussion.

For a resolution to be approved, nine out of 15 member countries should OK it, and five permanent member countries should no veto it. France, Germany and Russia have opposed the resolution by issuing a recommendation that they give Irag a few months of time. China wants to prolong the weapons inspection. The US and Britain have to have France, China and Russia renounce and draw support from at least seven non-permanent member countries.

Among non-permanent members, Spain is expected to approve the resolution. Bulgaria once announced its support for the US, but recently has kept a low profile. Bulgaria is in dilemma since it has to maintain good relations with the US in order to become a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO), and with France in order to become a member of the European Union.

Syria and Pakistan are opposing the approval of the resolution. Syria, the only Arab nation among the members of the Security Council, said that it would not agree on the resolution that approves the use of forces. Pakistan is expected not to vote for the resolution, but President Pervez Mushraf only said on Tuesday that he would watch the situation closely to the end.

African countries such as Cameroon and Guinea are influenced more from France than from the US. Angola, the 2nd largest oil producer in Africa, is a strategically important nation from the perspective of the US for oil security and the post-war reconstruction of Iraq. Many observe that the US would get Angola on its side even through lobbying.

Mexico and Chile cannot turn a cold shoulder to the US given the economic cooperation with the US. Economic ties between these two countries and the US have been stronger than ever before since the conclusion of the free trade zone. But they could not ignore the anti-war sentiment inside.

The US is fully engaged in lobbying activities in an attempt to draw support from countries that have not made their mind. Recently US President George W. Bush called Mexican President Vincente Fox and Chilean President Lagos and asked for cooperation. An official of the US State Department is making a visit to Angola, Cameroon and Guinea. Financial Times, however, said that these countries might want something unexpected to occur such as Iraq`s decision to disarm so that they don`t have to take side.

Seung-Jin Kim sarafina@donga.com