Analysis by Presidents of 15 Economic Research Institutes

Presidents of domestic economic research institutes said ‘sudden increase of household debts and a mass production delinquent customers as the most concerned matter in the Korean economy. Also, they indicated a depression of the domestic market, worse relation between North Korea and USA and a possibility of radical reform logic extension as warnings of next year.

According to an investigation of Federation of Korean Industries(FKI) on December 29, presidents of domestic 15 economic research institutes showed such an worry regarding the Korean economy of next year. Besides, 60% of residents answered, “Korean economy will hardly take a favorable turn next year owing to unfavorable factors such as an uneasiness of the world economy”. 67% of respondents answered, “A war of Iraq –US will affect somewhat the Korean economy.”

Compared with the last investigation, there was the worry about ‘sudden increase of household debts. Also, the investigation said that the new variable such as the worse relation of North Korea-US and the political unrest based on the rapid reform logic extension possibility would have a serious influence on the economy.

The presidents of economic research institutes said that there must be a priority of the economic policy for a stable relation of a labor-management and good enterprise environment. Also, major assignments included economic policy such as the increase of the national competitiveness, restriction relief, improvement of the enterprise management environment and a corporate restructuring.

Besides, the presidents answered ‘Korean team’s advancement to semi-final’ as the number one of ‘top ten news of the economy’ which have affected the Korean economy directly and indirectly.

As other top-ten news, there were ‘the president elect Roh Moo-hyun’, ‘sudden increase of a property price’, ‘depression of the domestic market’, ‘FTA agreement between Korea-Chile’ in orders.

On the back of them, there were △ a unbalanced growth of the industry in regions, tradition & IT, △ a backward international competitiveness, △worry about a double-deep of the world economy, △employment unrest such as an unemployment of the youth and △ hegemony of US in orders.

The respondents of the survey included Daishin Economic Research Institute, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, Trade Research Institute, Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade, Samsung Economic Research Institute, Center for Free Enterprise, POSCO Research Institute, Construction & Economy Research Institute of Korea, Korea Economic Research Institute, Korea Institute of Finance, Korea Development Institute, Korea Institute of Public Finance, Korea Accounting Institute, Hyundai Research Institute, and LG Economic Institute in alphabetical order of Korea.

Keuk-In Bae bae2150@donga.com