Bush, ‘Confidence’ On The North Nuclear

U.S President George.W.Bush mentioned about the ‘confidence’ regarding the matter of nuclear program of the North Korea at Korea, U.S, Japan summit, delivered Japanese defense vice – minister, Abe Shinjo on 27th.

It seems that ‘confidence’ of President Bush means to assure that the North would withdraw Uranium nuclear development program as well as to imply to the North not to expect change in the U.S stance.

Researcher of diplomatic security, Professor Kim Sung-han said, “President Bush considers he can make the North give up nuclear program not by using military power but by diplomatic and economic pressure from friendly nations.”

It is that, if friendly nations help the U.S, the North Korea would give up before taking final card so called military response.

Friendly nations include Korea, Japan and even China. It is considered that the U.S military response in Korea peninsula would be difficult due to its geographic and geopolitical conditions, which is a mountainous region and has interest in relationship with neighboring four nations. President Bush himself took an optimistic view, too, saying, “ the North needs our support.”

If we think about such speech of President Bush, he expects that the North would stay back by itself in the course of raising the pressure, such as demand of pre-withdrawal of nuclear program -> if denied, political pressure by international society ->stoppage of economic support by neighboring countries -> revision or withdrawal of Geneva treaty.

In particular, experts analyze that it is also to clarify support of international society besides Korea, Japan and China at the summit of APEC regarding U.S style solution on the North nuclear matter that supported such confidence of President Bush.

Young-Sik Kim spear@donga.com