Lee Ahead of Roh, but Behind Chung

There has been changed in approval ratings of presidential candidates as the Millennium Democratic Party (MDP) decided to form a new party after the Aug. 8 by-elections.

Donga Ilbo and Korean Research Center (KRC) jointly conducted a telephone survey of 1,579 adults nationwide on the 10th. The survey found that if the MDP creates a new party, the most competitive presidential candidate against Lee Hoi-chang of the Grand National Party (GNP) will be independent lawmaker Chung Mong-jung followed by Roh Mu-hyun, MDP presidential candidate, Goh Geon, former Seoul mayor, and Lee Han-dong, former prime minister. Chung garners 39.5% of support, 6.5% ahead of Lee Hoe-chang with 33.5%.

Roh gained 31.7% of support compared to Lee`s 40.4%. Goh with 23% and Lee Han-dong with 14% also lagged behind Lee who earned 43.9% and 48.3% against two figures respectively.

In the case that Lee, Roh and Chung form a three-way competition, Lee garnered 30.8%, Roh 20.8% and Chung 27.4%, showing Chung and Lee competing neck and neck within a margin of error. The result shows that popularities of Lee and Roh declined by 5.2% and 2.1% respectively while Chung`s approval rating soared by 12.1% compared with the previous survey conducted on June 15, right after the local elections.

If Lee and Roh wage a two-way competition as it has been, Lee stays ahead of Roh with approval ratings of 42.1% and 29.8% respectively.

Asked who will be the most desirable president, 22.4% of respondents said Lee, 13% and 10.9% said Roh and Chung respectively. 50.6% said no one is desirable, or did not answer.

Asked who is most likely to be elected as president, 52.2% cited Lee, 7.4% said Chung, and 6.1% said Roh. Even supporters of the MDP and those who advocate Roh and Chung thought that the likelihood of Lee`s election is higher than Roh or Chung.

Meanwhile, 32% of respondents supported the GNP, 15.8% the MDP. 4.6% and 0.9% of respondents supported the Democratic Labor Party and the splinter United Liberal Democrats respectively. But 45.7% of respondents said there was no party to support, or did not answer.

Regarding the appointment of Chang Dae-hwan as acting Prime Minister, 29.7% regarded it as a right decision while 9.1% saw it as wrong. But 61.2% said not sure, indicating the public consensus on the issue has not yet been formed.

The margin of error of the survey is ±2.5% with confidence level of 95%.

sunny60@donga.com