An Asteroid with a Presumed Diameter of 2 Km Can Possibly Collide with the Earth in 2019.

The BBC Internet edition in the UK reported on the 23rd that an asteroid might collide with the earth in 17 years and create a terrible disaster.

The astronomers of the Lincoln Near Earth Asteroids Research Center discovered an asteroid, which had a diameter of 2 km according to the luminosity analysis, on the 5th, and named it ‘2002 NT7.’

Although there still are many variables, the broadcasting said that the astronomers calculated that this asteroid would collide with the earth on February 1, 2019. According to this scenario, the asteroid will hit the earth that day with the speed of 28km per second. This is powerful enough to destroy a whole continent and bring a worldwide climate change. Dr. Benny Pager of the John Moors University in Liverpool, England said, “The NT7 is the most dangerous thing in observation history.”

If the asteroid colliding with the earth has a diameter of more than 7 km, it can bring a global disaster as seen in the movie ‘Deep Impact,’ but the actual provability of an asteroid colliding with the earth is one in 10 million years. If the diameter is 1.7 km or larger, it can create massive seismic waves, and the provability is one in 20,000 years.

Many people say that there are too many variable to be sure about the collision. Dr. Donald Yomans of the US NASA Jet Propulsion Research Center said, “The error range of the calculation, which predicts the collision of the NT7 on February 1, 2019, is more than tens of million km,” and “the people should get used to the appearances of harmless asteroids.”

There was a case that an asteroid with a diameter of 60 m fell and exploded in the air in Tunguska, Siberia in 1908 and devastated forests near the spot. The explosion power of that was much bigger than that of the atomic bomb dropped in Hiroshima and same as a hydrogen bomb.

havefun@donga.com