Roh Moo-Hyun 40.3% Versus Lee Hoe-Chang 36.6%

In a simulated two-way race between presidential candidates Roh Moo-Hyun of the Millennium Democratic Party (MDP) and Lee Hoe-Chang of the Grand National Party (GNP), candidate Roh has led candidate Lee by 3.7 percent points, getting a popular support of 40.3 percent compared to 36.6 percent of candidate Lee, according to a telephone public opinion survey targeting 9,217 adults of the nation on May 24 and 25 conducted by Dong-a Ilbo and the Korea Research Center (KRC)

When compared to the survey result conducted on May 1 by Dong-a Ilbo, the popular support rate of candidate Roh decreased 2.7 percent points while the support rate of candidate Lee increased 3.7 percent point, thus the gap of the support rates between the two candidates narrowed to 3.7 percent points from 10.1 percent points.

In case when chairperson of Korean Coalition to the Future (KCF) Park Geun-Hye jumps in the presidential race, candidate Roh got 36.4 % against candidate Lee`s 34.3 percent, and chairperson Park took 10.3 percent of the public opinion polls, which showed a narrowing of the gap between Roh and Lee to 2.1 percent points. The support rate for chairperson Park did not change much.

The support rates of candidates Roh and Lee showed a wide difference in each generation. Candidate Roh led by 26.9 percent points and 23.7 percent points in the voters of their twenties and thirties respectively, but candidate Lee led about 23.6 percent points in the age group of more than fifty years` old. In case of the age group of forties, Roh had once led Lee by 39.6 percent to 33.4 percent, but Lee led Roh by 42.8 pecent to 33.8 percent in the public opinion poll conducted this time. The candidate support rates of the voters in their twenties and thirties favoring Roh and the age group of more than fifty years` old favoring Lee have not changed much.

The narrowing of the gap of the support rates between candidates Roh and Lee has been also influenced by the consolidation degree of the GNP supporters. While 73 percent of the supporters of the GNP supported candidate Lee on May 1 survey, this time around 80.8 percent of them supported candidate Lee. The support rate of the MDP supporters for Roh changed little, but became a minus factor on the popular support of candidate Roh since the support rate of the MDP slipped.

sunny60@donga.com