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[Opinion] How Many Times Will It Flow in Whirls?

Posted March. 28, 2002 09:51,   


National affairs this year have major elections, which are likely to be unusually long and have severe undulations.

We are likely to experience `whirling Korean politics` harshly.

If primary system by the people of MDP presidential candidates is new trial, it was also and unexpected thing that more than half of primary candidates gave up passing one third point.

Especially why frontrunner candidate Rhee In-Je lost his pace suddenly is not common.

If it were so, primary by people of MDP has lost its face.

The reason for candidate Rhee, who raised `plotting theory`, to be shaken is that he didn`t think deeply that there are many expected projected variables of major elections and severe undulations, I presume.

If he raised `plotting theory` targeting `Kim`s mind` which means the mind of President Kim Dae Jung, he should have raised it on full scale its shading and position through introduction of `Kim`s mind, not paralleling the two awkwardly.

As he suddenly showed the main subject, that is `plotting theory` without any strategy to drag up discrimination with the current government as common issue, therefore, he couldn`t lead consensus and interest of candidates.

I think it failed in strategic part.

Currently buoyed candidates are candidates Roh Moo-Hyun of MDP and candidate Lee Hoi-Chang of GNP.

The leader Lee missed timing to arrange, when internal friction of GNP burst out and messed up.

Although leader Lee accepted party`s opinion like giving up leadership and collective system, however it is clear that he embraced bomb that can explode anytime.

Internal friction settled down, however, the apple of dispute is still alive.

By the way, first whirlpool is over.

There is one thing to pay attention to.

It is not sure whether Roh M.H. wants to expand party externally or not, however, in this case, there are big burdens by personnel policy of DJ administration, policy on the North and each political compromise scandal.

Otherwise does he wants to go to a new party which is centered by new political power?

How will he make relationship with `Kim`s mind?

Why these inquiries occur is, because it is political reformation only in words, it is difficult to shake political world by only candidate Roh`s power.

We do not know which physical response will occur with existing members in MDP, through new outdoor member`s joining.

This is also the origin of whirlpool.

More crucial crisis is local elections in June.

Supposing candidates run for elections as MDP which President Kim created, if they win overwhelmingly, it is no problem but if they lose, the responsibility of the result is bound to come out.

It is sure that the opposition will fully attack the current politics and moreover, people`s evaluation on the national affairs is so negative.

Finally, the responsibility after local elections might appear as the cause of another whirlpool.

Thereby, circulating the word, `people of June` to those who will appear this time is not likely a mere chance.

It can be impatient conclusion, however as major elections this year is unusually long and has lots of variables, candidate Roh took out the opinion of political reformation too fast, I think.

Political reformation opinion tensioned surroundings too early as still there is enough time.

It means that strategy and response which should be arranged with enough time, might not be so easy to arrange.

Moreover, it is needed to pay attention to special envoy Lim Dong Won`s visit to the North, which was presented at the beginning of major elections.

The change of relationship between the South-North which can cause aftermath, after visiting the North, can act as an initial explosive and exert big influence on elections.

Experts predict that the North side responds aggressively to the demands of the South observing the recent movement surrounding Korean peninsula.

In this case, major elections can face new aspect.

Of course, it is sure that it will serve as an advantage to the current ruling power.

If it is so, it is not the level of `plotting theory` but `big strategy ` level which is far beyond it.