[Opinion] European Academics Prophesy `the Fall of North Korea`

The mainstream European academic world is more faithful to the great Western solidarity than one expected. The academics that the author interviewed from Switzerland, Sweden, and Germany all agree with the U.S. George W. Bush administration`s view of North Korea as part of the `axis of evil` along with Iran and Iraq. They think that when a nation`s economic crisis leads its people to starve, the government system has completely failed, and one cannot ignore this even if only from a human rights consideration.

These academics are pessimistic about the future of China as well. They think that the scale of corruption hidden in the public enterprises and financial sectors is very serious, and that China will not be able to survive the competition from other nations after its inception in the WTO. Every year there is around 10,000 crimes committed in the Chinese provinces. In order for the government to stop this, it will have to invest in the economically straggling provinces. Yet, the academics think that this will inevitably lead to strict structural adjustments and mass unemployment as the Chinese government has strained its resources to maintain the public financial enterprises.

When we connect North Korea to this analysis, the scenario of sudden collapse becomes even more compelling. North Korea has survived on the edge of a cliff since the Soviet Union and East European communist states fell 10 years ago. They have been able to survive because of humane aid from international society and China`s strategic support, but North Korea may soon lose both lifelines.

Some scholars are urging the allied nations including the U.S., Japan, Korea, and even China to form a development plan in case China may abandon North Korea just as Mikhail Gorbachev abandoned East Germany to West Germany.

People in the financial world, however, are busy trying to occupy the North Korean market. The International Council, with participating members like ABB, Volvo, Ericsson from Sweden, is formalizing plans to build support businesses in North Korea in five divisions such as energy, telecom, and other products. The International Council is also planning to introduce a market economy education program designed by the Stockholm School of Economics and taught through the Kim Il-Sung University economics faculty.

Germany is also on the move. Germany, who has files on North Korea from the former East German government, gives the impression that it is aiming to be the first in line to jump at the North Korean market. The German administration, which does not need to be too concerned about its diplomatic relations with the U.S., has agreed to take 50 North Korean international students for IT training. Furthermore, the East Asia club located in Hamburg has built a common representative office in Pyongyang for 17 major German corporations such as Volkswagen and Siemens.

These people in the financial world expressed hopes that a new economic miracle is possible if the authoritarian North Korean government begins to welcome private economic initiatives just as South Korea did.

One side is calling North Korea evil and ordering a blockade policy, while another side is taking pains to grasp the thread of economic cooperation with the North Korean government. This is a bundle of contradictions and prejudicial interests that show these various European nations as the greatest opportunists. None of these individuals are concerned about the economic rupture that the collapse of North Korea will bring to the Korean Peninsula.

West Germany took over East Germany with an economic offensive 12 years ago, but the East German economy is still on the brink of drowning. Although East Germans made up only 17 percent of the entire German population, one-third of the unemployed are East Germans while they constitute only 8 percent and 6 percent respectively in overall German manufacturing and export. The vision of reunification that wanted to make `one people, two nations` into `one people, one nation` has ended up creating `two peoples, one nation`.

Former East German Minister of Economy and Professor of Economics in Berlin, Dr. Christa Luft emphasized the following to the author: "You must not approach the issue of reunification from the perspective of political ideology. In the case of South and North Koreas whose differences are much more severe than the East German case and has great disadvantages, particularly in terms of needed capital transfusion, one must beware of a reunification achieved on political and military ideology. If possible, it is more worthwhile for South and North Korea to maintain their economic structures and devise ways to revive North Korea. This is the way to minimize the harm to the South and North Korean people. South and North Korea must not repeat the mistakes of the German reunification."

Lee Chan-Keun (University of Incheon, Professor of Economics, Visiting Professor Development Research Institute, Geneva)