“Economic Recovery Expected in Second Half of Next Year“

6 economic experts out of 10 expected that Korean economy could manage to recover from the stagnation in the second half of next year. The primary factor of uncertainty for next year economy was analyzed as `political unrest and weakening of economic policy driving force prior to the presidential election`. And majority of the experts evaluated the international competitiveness of current domestic industry as the same as that of 3 years ago or worse.

The research, inquiring the `questions about current economic situation and prospect on next year` was performed by Dong-a Ilbo in association with Korea International Trade Association (KITA). 50 economic experts from △academic circles △ research institutes and economic bodies △ private enterprises △ and financial circles participated in the research, and its analysis was released on 5th.

Regarding the question about the time of economic recovery, 58.0 percent (29 persons) answered `in the second half of next year` and ` first half of 2003` was 20.0 percent (10), while `first half of next year` was only 4.0 percent (2). It showed a negative opinion on the economic recovery expectation. And about the economic growth rate, many experts expected it to be lower than 3 percent, and the average expected rate was 2.9 percent. 32.0 percent (16) of the answerers prospected it to be 2 percent, and 24 percent (12) answered 3 percent. And expectation for more than 4 percent reached 20.0 percent (10).

To the question, what`s different about the international competitiveness of Korean industry, compared to the situation under 1998`s foreign exchange crisis, △ 60 percent replied `similar` (30) △ 30 percent `weakened` (18) △ 4.0 percent `improved` (2).

Majority opinion (65.5 percent) about the primary factor of the uncertainty in the Korean economy is `the alleviation of the economic policy driving force prior the Presidential election`.

Most emergent policies that government should enforce are said `to develop new industry and new technology development aid` (46 percent), `export promotion` (26 percent), and `stimulating domestic consumption` (18 percent). And many experts emphasized that continuing the restructuring and deregulation are crucial elements.

Other economic indicators that were prospected are in average △ consumer`s price to rise 3.7 percent △ amount of surplus income of $6.7 billion in black △ unemployed rate of 3.7 percent.

kkh@donga.com