A Light before the Wind, Kabul

In the midst of counting down the assault of the Northern Alliance on Afghan capital Kabul, much attention has been drawn by the military strategy and political consideration of the United States, which declared that they do not want the Northern Alliance to overrun the capital.

The U.S.`s plan `after falling Kabul` is limited not simply to occupy and rule the city, but also refers to a corner stone to construct the post-Taliban government on behalf of the United States and to execute its influence in the future.

The ground campaign of the U.S. coalition can be divided into two steps. First, the ground forces of the U.S. and its allies surround Kabul, and then join the Northern Alliance forces to collapse Kabul by the lead of the U.S. coalition. It has changed a lot from the existing strategy to smash the Taliban forces with the Northern Alliance familiar with the region at the head. The reason why the U.S. opposes to the sole attack of the Northern Alliance lies here.

The U.S. changed its strategy, above all, due to a way of constructing the post-Taliban government after the fall of Kabul.

The U.S. stands in the standpoint that the new government should ▲ put to an end the tribal wars in Afghanistan, ▲ reflect the interest relations and the dynamics of the countries around Afghanistan, and ▲ contribute for achieving the war goals of the U.S. coalition forces.

Therefore, in case of the occupation of Kabul by the Northern Alliance, loosened groupings of minor ethnic groups, it is likely to take the initiative in Afghanistan, which might bring about the conflict with the `Afghan Grand Plan` of the U.S.. So, the U.S. is raising the neutralization plan of Kabul just like Berlin after the World War II.

In spite of the U.S.`s warning, the Northern Alliance will not stop the sole attack on Kabul. Gen. Afzal Aman said in an interview with the AFP yesterday morning, ``We will launch the attack on Kabul within an hour.``

But he also said that the Northern alliance forces would proceed only up to the entrance of Kabul, and would not enter in the downtown, hinting at that it was aware of the U.S.`s warning. Prior to this press interview, the Northern Alliance employed an army of five thousand in northern of Kabul for attacking Kabul on 11th.

orionha@donga.com