`Economy Prime Minister` Blair is to be Reelected

As a victory of ruling Labour Party (LP) is expected, English general election is to be held on 7th in 659 election districts nationwide. The number of qualified voters is 44 million.

Tony Blair, the head of the LP, said in his campaign on 6th, ``give your votes to me to secure LP’s stable second-term seizure of the power.`` William Hague, the head of the Conservative Party (CP) which is the first opposition party, also said, ``LP’s excessive occupying of the seats can be a threat for democracy.``

Since the last poll by ICM, a public opinion survey institution, showed that the LP took 43 percent, the Conservative Party 32 percent, and the Liberal Democrat Party 19 percent of supporting rate, the LP’s sweeping victory is easily expected.

Prospect of the LP’s sweeping victory = The biggest factor is that England is enjoying a great economic boom that could be envied by other EU countries.

The Blair administration that began to rule from 1997 has been concentrating on revival of economy, instead of the public welfare that former LP administration stressed. As a result, the annual economy growth rate has reached to 3 percent and the number of unemployed people has fallen to less than one million dropping down the unemployment rate a 25 year record low.

Prime Minister Blair’s personal popularity has been a helpful factor to take an early lead. Blair, who suddenly had become the head of the party due to an unexpected death of the former head, became the Prime Minister in his age of 44. His young and intelligent image and superb leadership has appealed to female voters and young generations.

The fact that the CP has not been sounding its own voice since the loss of 1997 general election can be a reason for the LP to win. It is evaluated that Hague has not yet shown a proper leadership to control the party. And his promises for the election are unrealistic ones making him not be able to adjust to the rapid changes.

Issues of Debate = The LP stresses the election promises for public, such as a reform on the medical system and education budget expansion. On the other hand, the CP presents somewhat vague promises, such as strengthening on foreigner policy and opposition against introduction of Euro.

The biggest issue is the tax cut and introduction of Euro. The CP has pledged a drastic cut of the income tax that had increased from 21 percent to 26 percent after the LP’s ruling. But, voters are showing negative reactions saying that the idea of tax cut could be just an empty promise, while they has ignored the issue of National Healthcare System (NHS), for which an enormous amount of budget has to be spent.

For the issue of introduction of Euro, most of voters are supporting the line of the CP. For that reason, the LP is trying to escape from the attack of the CP with a `detour strategy` in which the LP said that they will decide the matter after a referendum.

Although the CP presents the issues of the Foot and Mouth Disease and the Mad Cow Disease as a major debatable point for the election, it seems not to be a major factor for the final result.

Feature of the election = In case of the last election, female candidates occupied 18 percent, 120 seats, out of 659 seats setting a record. It was a big change comparing with 1992’s 62 seats and 1987’s 47 seats.

However, it is expected to see not much `women power` in this election. There were distinguishable figures in last election, such as Glenda Jackson (65), who won two Academy Awards, and Betty Busroid (71), the former president of the congress. But, there are no such figures at this time and only 149 candidates participate.

It expected to see a change of major political figures for this time as `heavy-weight` class political figures have decided to retire. They are CP’s Edward Heath, who has kept his seat for 50 years, and the former Prime Minister John Major.

Paik Kyung-Hak stern100@donga.com