Bush victory means policy shift

With moderate conservative George W. Bush's apparent victory in the Nov. 7 presidential election, the United States is heading for a political course based on conservative line.

His election bears more significance than the mere shift of power from eight years of Bill Clinton's Democratic administration to the Republican Party. The American people have chosen a change, despite the prosperity and stability they enjoyed under the Clinton government, heralding considerable changes in the future domestic and foreign policies.

In the United States, it is a tradition that the backbone of foreign and trade policies are maintained regardless of the power changes. Yet in view of the fact that Bush had severely criticized the Clinton policies and demanded their liquidation, the possibility is high that the incoming president will undertake revisions of major policy measures that have been pursued by the Clinton administration.

Bush's main foreign policy line is the pursuit of national interests with the backing of the American strength.

His basic vision is to wield the leadership in the international community as the only superpower in quest of universal values such as global peace, free trade, democracy and human rights. A diplomatic source in Washington said that the president-elect regards the international treaties and organizations as a means of attaining national interests and foreign policy goals, predicting that therefore he would take unilateral action, if it is necessary for the protection of national interests.

This marks a contrast with the Clinton administration's policy line of seeking solutions of international questions through cooperation with the United Nations and other international organizations.

President-elect Bush has so far criticized the Clinton administration's foreign policies toward unfriendly nations such as China, Russia, North Korea, Iraq and Cuba as an appeasement policy and insisted that the United States should cope with these countries stringently based on strength. This falls in line with his father, ex-president Bush's hard-line foreign policy as demonstrated by his triggering the Persian Gulf War, when Iraq invaded Kuwait.

For that reason, it is certain that the American defense force will be greatly strengthened under the incoming Bush administration. Bush has asserted that the combat capability of the U.S. armed forces and the military morale diminished due to the Clinton administration's refusal to increase defense outlays. Accordingly, he made pledges to increase defense budget and build the national missile defense system against the potential missile attacks from North Korea and other potential enemies.

As Bush maintains a position that he is ready to discard the Antiballistic Missile Treaty with Russia, if it is necessary for building the NMD, there is a possibility of sparking a dispute with Moscow.

Since he has the view that China is not an ally but a strategic competitor, he displayed a disparity in the foreign affairs with the Clinton administration, which underscored improved relations with Beijing including bilateral trade normalization as its outstanding diplomatic achievement.

With regard to the Korean question, the president-elect showed a skeptical view on the engagement policy with Pyongyang and reported changes in the North Korean stance. This might require a tripartite policy coordination among Washington, Seoul and Tokyo on the North Korean approaches.

If the Bush administration, which will be inaugurated next January, forces its way to follow the conservative line with the United States as the global epicenter, its diplomatic relations with Russia, China and other nations pursuing multinational systems could become uncomfortable.

Although Bush is in support of free trade and global market liberalization, he is opposed to lining trade questions with labor, human rights and environment issues. At the same time, he supports the imposition of trade sanctions in order to attain these diplomatic goals.

Regarding domestic industries, he advocated favorable policy toward large-scale enterprises and is expected to carry out considerable tax cuts. In some quarters, critical views are raised over any excessive tax cuts for fears of resulting again in federal deficits, pouring cold water on the economic boom the Americans are enjoying for the first time in the history.

The president-elect assumes a stance of basically opposing abortion, homosexual marriages and some other social issues.

Though Bush has no administrative experience other than his Texas governorship, his administration will be able to steer the nation in a good shape, as the Republicans dominated both the Senate and House of Representatives and have a vast manpower pool as well, experts say.

Han Ki-Heung eligius@donga.com