'6 million votes in the fog' to decide winners

With the 22nd general elections just one week away, estimates suggest that the number of undecided voters ranges from at least 4.46 million to as many as 6.19 million. Both the ruling and opposition parties have identified 30 out of 254 constituencies nationwide as closely contested, with the swing group likely determining the victors in these crucial battlegrounds.

The Dong-A Ilbo commissioned a public opinion poll, conducted by Research & Research, surveying 1,004 adult men and women nationwide last Thursday and Friday. According to the findings, 10.1% of active voters—those who confirmed they would participate in the general election—remain undecided about their choice of candidate. Considering the total number of voters in this general election, approximately 4.47 million individuals have yet to decide. Among all respondents, 14.0% expressed uncertainty about their candidate preference, indicating that the number of vacillating voters could reach up to 6.19 million.

The political landscape attributes the decrease in the number of undecided voters, estimated at around 10 million during the previous general election, to heightened political polarization compared to four years ago, leading to greater unity among supporters of both parties. "While the overall number of swing voters has declined, their impact on determining the outcome of key battlegrounds has intensified," a political insider said.

Notably, undecided voters comprise 25% of those in their 20s (18 to 29 years old), 23.4% in their 30s, and 17.2% of moderates, making their decisions a pivotal variable in shaping the election's outcome.


윤다빈 empty@donga.com