Trump’s remarks on NATO hint at his possible return with new bills to be issued

Aiming for a comeback to the White House in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, former U.S. President Donald Trump seems resolved to bash the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). He said on the campaign trail on Feb. 10 (local time) that major European nations are deadbeats as they fail to meet the organization's target of defense spending, even threatening to encourage Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to invade them.

It is not unknown that Trump takes a negative stance toward NATO. Nevertheless, he went beyond criticizing free riders in the security arena and called on the member states to increase defense contributions during his first presidency to even talk Russia into using military power against them. Obviously, making such remarks is considered no different from dropping a bomb on the very foundation of the alliance system that has contributed to the growth of the United States as one of the most powerful nations in the world.

He also maintained last Wednesday that NATO member states should raise defense expenses from two percent to four percent compared to GDP. One of his closest politicians declared menacingly that any government that falls short of this target should be excluded from NATO's collective security framework.

Some experts paid close attention to political calculations behind Trump's shocking comments as they came right after the U.S. Senate agreed to pass security assistance packages involving the enhancement of border controls against illegal Central and South American immigrants and aid programs for Ukraine. Some hawkish Republicans and Trump have called for stringent action against illegal immigrants while voicing against the passage of a budget bill for assistance to Ukraine, thus causing a delay in the legislative process.

However, they found it difficult to block Washington from financially aiding Ukraine after President Joe Biden accepted much of the Republican Party's argument for stronger border controls. Under these circumstances, Trump has seemingly come up with another excuse to rationalize his opposition to supporting Ukraine by calling for increased defense contributions to NATO. A source from Washington commented that this does not show an impulsive streak he has but reflects how tenaciously he fights his way to his goal.

It is less likely that an early end to the ongoing war in Ukraine will happen despite the presidential pledge that Trump always makes on the campaign trail. After all, it can occur only if Ukraine surrenders a massive chunk of land to Russia. On the other hand, an end to this war could be a significant step toward realizing the withdrawal of around 12,000 U.S. troops from Germany, which the former Trump administration sought. His threat to encourage Russia’s invasion has come from the diplomatic calculus that a reduced U.S. presence in Europe would help focus on China.

If Trump returns to the White House, South Korea can be given a new bill considering the moves he has made. Former U.S. national security advisor Robert O'Brien, one of his closest friends, told The Dong-A Ilbo that U.S. forces stationed in Germany could be relocated to Guam, Palau, Hawaii, Alaska, or anywhere in the Indo-Pacific Region. Reacting to the rise of China is a collective mission for not only Washington but also Korea, Tokyo, and other allies to handle, he said, stressing that there would be much more Seoul could do for the sake of its alliance with Washington. He seemingly intended to shift the military focus of the United States Forces Korea (USFK) from responding mainly to North Korea to keeping China in check. The argument to adjust the role of the USFK to respond to China can bring about significant change to the Northeast Asian security landscape, including what role Seoul will play in case of a conflict with Taiwan.

Europe has regretted its ill-preparedness against the risks associated with Trump's possible return. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the main contender for the post of NATO Secretary, stressed last Saturday that it is time to stop being whiny and focus on Europe's interests. His message relates to South Korea, given that it is also faced with a risk of a Trump win as serious as in Europe.