`No shifts seen in Sino-US ties despite leadership change`

"Despite the inauguration of China’s new leadership, including President Xi Jinping, no significant changes to policy related to Sino-U.S. relations are expected, and the policy will be pretty much similar to that of the Hu Jintao era."

The Dong-A Ilbo on Tuesday interviewed William Overholt, former director of the Asia-Pacific Policy Research Center under the leading U.S. think tank Land Institute and senior research fellow at Harvard`s Kennedy School of Government. On policy toward China, whose leadership held a once-in-a-decade transition last month, the 67-year-old researcher said, “The key will be what kind of consensus will be reached within the new leadership team.”

Asked if a policy shift is expected as both China and the U.S. had changes in leadership last month,” Overholt said, “There will be no significant change in policy not only in the U.S. but also in China,” adding, “The new Chinese leadership hopes to ease tension vis-à-vis the U.S., but has failed to reach consensus in methodology. Before we hear about their decision, we cannot make specific predictions on anything.”

“As both countries will seek economic recovery, economic tension will ease,” he said, adding, “If President Xi steps up economic reform, he will put more emphasis on domestic consumption than exports, which will ease bilateral conflict including imbalances in the foreign exchange rate and trade.”

On China’s terrestrial disputes with neighboring countries, including Japan and the Philippines, he said, “The development of the Internet has made it difficult for leaders to forge rational compromises on sensitive territorial issues. In fact, the dispute over the Senkaku Islands (called Diaoyu in China) can be considered a situation where Japan mistakenly caused trouble for no reason. China has responded overly emotionally, and has instead earned an aggressive image. The new leadership needs to make a strategic move to lessen China’s hardline stance.”

jaj@donga.com