2 years left

The Lee Myung-bak administration received the lowest assessment in national security in its first three years. Inter-Korean relations were singled out as an area the administration performed most poorly in over the past three years. Despite North Korea`s warnings of aggression, South Korea poorly prepared itself, faced national crises, and failed to take adequate action after the North’s provocations. President Lee enters his fourth year in office amid heightening tension on the Korean Peninsula. After sinking the South Korean naval warship Cheonan and shelling Yeonpyeong Island, Pyongyang is striving to develop nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Signs have also surfaced that the North will conduct a third nuclear test. Over its two remaining years, the Lee administration could face a national security crisis far more serious than in its first three years.

Over the past three years, the government halted unconditional and generous aid to North Korea in stopping a practice prevalent under the liberal Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations. Seoul, however, has created no changes through its own leadership. President Lee mentioned a "unification tax" in his Liberation Day speech on Aug. 15 last year, but failed to win public consensus and support. Bilateral relations with the U.S. grew stronger but this also helped boost the traditional “blood ties” between China and North Korea, creating another cause for worry.

The North faced a crisis in summer 2008 as its leader Kim Jong Il suffered a stroke. The ongoing transfer of power to the third generation of the ruling Kim family, which has come sooner than expected, is a testimony to the communist regime’s instability. Chances are high that the North will launch a provocation or military strike next year, which Pyongyang declared as the “first year of a great and powerful nation,” and the centennial birthday of the North’s founder Kim Il Sung. The rapidly evolving landscape of world politics will also affect the North. The successive collapse of long-standing dictatorships in Africa and the Middle East will wield a major impact on Kim Jong Il and his youngest son and heir apparent Jong Un.

If the Lee administration devises a comprehensive policy toward North Korea over its remaining time in office and thus efficiently counters the North’s aggression through customized measures, it could seize an opportunity for reunification. In the wake of the Cheonan sinking and the attack on Yeonpyeong, the South Korean government and military are seen to be regaining vigilance but still do not seem fully dependable. In the wake of the humiliating intelligence fiasco involving an Indonesian presidential delegation, the credibility of South Korean intelligence on North Korea is in question as well. President Lee should be the first to reflect on the negligence and indecisiveness of his national security leadership over the past three years and renew his commitment to spearhead improvement of the Korean Peninsula’s situation over the next two years.

The Lee government also deserves a “C” grade in domestic politics. Among the many national ventures President Lee envisioned, his administration has made progress in just the four-river restoration project. The change in plan to relocate central government agencies to Sejong City caused political chaos but no gains. Most say the Lee administration lost a chance to achieve constitutional amendment as well. A planned international science-business belt project and the selection of the site of a new airport in the Gyeongsang region will entail political disputes whichever the decisions are. These problems are largely due to failure by the presidential office, administration and ruling Grand National Party to make thorough preparations and effectively cope with the situations.

The government has faced a flurry of controversy and backlash due to the appointment of key posts for political compensation, favoritism based on regional background of candidates, and repetitive appointments of the same people from the inner circle. A number of nominees for top government posts, including the prime minister, were disqualified at confirmation hearings due to their lack of moral integrity, incurring a negative impact on the administration of state affairs. The lack of major corruption scandals involving the president’s relatives or aides distinguishes this administration from others, but what matters most will be what the president does in the remaining period of his term. With its moral foundation on shaky ground, the administration could face another major crisis if an influence-peddling scandal breaks out, especially when it urges a “just society.” More than anyone else, President Lee should keep this in mind.