GNP Saying Its Narrow Lead, while MDP Insisting It is Maintaining the Lead

As the election is just two days away, on Dec. 17, both the conservative Grand National Party (GNP) and the pro-government Millennium Democratic Party (MDP) claimed their lead over each other in the presidential race.

The GNP is arguing that though in voters survey the two parties are battling within the margin of error, according to an in-depth analysis, the GNP is slightly leading. Its analysis is based on the assumption that Roh Moo-hyun supporters made their voice heard while those backing Lee Hoi-chang of the GNP are reluctant to show their opinion.

Nam Kyung-pil, spokesman of the GNP said, "According to voters surveys conducted nationwide by the party, in Seoul and its vicinity and Chungcheong area, where the party had been trailing the MDP or the two parties had been running neck-to-neck, there has been a clear increase in the popularity of Mr. Lee since last weekend." He said that the question over the relocation plan raised by Lee is working.

Meanwhile, the MDP is confident that because Mr. Roh continues to maintain a narrow lead over Mr. Lee, Mr. Roh could win the election were not for any unexpected factor.

The MDP relates, "As the two major parties had exchanged harsh words over the relocation of the capital last week, Roh’s narrow lead had somewhat shrank but starting last weekend his lead stabilized because Chung of National Alliance 21 joined the MDP campaign in earnest as part of the political alliance." It also predicted that in absentee voting Roh would get at least 200,000 more votes than the GNP.

Lee Hae-chan, senior member of the MDP election preparation committee said, "According to an election simulation based on our polls and pollsters’ polls, on the assumption that the voters’ turnout is 80 percent, our party will win the election by the margin of 740,000 votes and if the turnout of those in their 20s and 30s is lower, the gap will drop to 600,000 votes while if their turnout is higher, the margin will rise to as many as 900,000 ballots."

In a two-way race, roughly speaking, for a sure victory each candidate should get more than 14 million votes, according to election experts’ prediction.

In this presidential election, voters reach 34,991,529. Therefore, on the assumption that the turnout is 80 percent, or 27.99 million voters, each candidate should earn more than 14 million votes to be guaranteed a victory.

Officials of the GNP and the MDP forecast that even if Kwon Young-ghil of the Democratic Labor Party wins more than 5 percent of the votes, each candidate, Roh or Lee, should get 12,59 million ballots to be guaranteed a sure victory.

Jeong-Hun Kim Jong-Koo Yoon jnghn@donga.com jkmas@donga.com