U.S. presidential race remains neck and neck

With four days left before the U.S. presidential elections, unpredictability persists, as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are having neck-and-neck races in an increasing number of states.

According to the RealClearPolitics (RCP), which announces polling averages, Clinton had clinched 226 Electoral College votes as of Thursday morning, while Trump had secured 180. The number of Electoral College votes up for grabs in 11 neck-and-neck states totaled 132. A candidate has to win 270 or more votes to be elected president.

The number of Electoral College votes in neck-and-neck states increased by 21 in just four days after the FBI announced a reinvestigation into Clinton’s e-mail scandal. RCP attributed the increase mainly to shifts by Virginia (13 Electoral College votes) and Pennsylvania (20 Electoral College votes) from Clinton supremacy to neck-and-neck races. The races in Florida (29 votes), Ohio (18 votes) and North Carolina (15 votes) still remain too close to call.

NBC’s revealed similar poll results on Wednesday. The Electoral votes in neck-and-neck states that amounted to 157 in mid-October had increased to 180. Florida, which appeared to be leaning toward Clinton, had become a neck-and-neck state again. The CNN/ORC poll also showed that the two contenders were also having a close race in neck-and-neck states within the margins of errors. Clinton was slightly ahead in Florida (49 percent vs. 47 percent) and Pennsylvania (48 percent vs. 44 percent). Trump was leading in Arizona (49 percent v. 44 percent) and Nevada (49 percent to 43 percent).

The Washington Post, which has been forecasting a Clinton victory regardless of the poll results, suggested four scenarios, in which Trump would win, projecting that if Trump wins some of the closely contested states, he can get elected by securing up to 273 Electoral College votes. In a most likely scenario, the Republican nominee gets all of the states Mitt Romney won in 2012, as well as Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio and New Hampshire. In another possibility, he would give North Carolina to Clinton but wins Nevada and Wisconsin.

The two camps are heating up their last-minute offensives. Michael McCaul, chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, said in an interview with Fox News on Thursday that Clinton could be impeached if she were elected. “This investigation will continue whether she wins or not, but assuming she wins and the investigation goes forward, and it looks like an indictment is pending, at that point of time in the Constitution, the House of Representatives would engage in an impeachment trial,” he said. Republican lawmaker Jim Jordan of Ohio, a member of the House Oversight Committee, said in a statement that regardless of who wins the election, “We need to continue investigating Secretary Clinton’s email scandal, and alleged impropriety between the State Department and Clinton Foundation.”

A motion for a U.S. presidential impeachment is introduced if a majority of the House of the Representatives agree and approved if two-thirds of Senators present vote for it. As it is highly unlikely for the Republican Party to win two thirds of Senate, there is a slim chance for Clinton’s impeachment. As the GOP is expected to retain its House majority, the controversies over impeachment would likely continue even if Clinton is elected president.

Seung-Heon Lee ddr@donga.com · HAN GI JAE record@donga.com