Is Kim Planning Economic Reforms?

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il visited the economic zone in South Guangdong Province on his secret trip to China yesterday, according to news reports. This region is where Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms were implemented in the 1980s. Therefore, attention is being focused on the future direction of North Korea’s economic reforms as a result.

Kim’s Trip South-

Kim met with Zhang Dejiang and other Guangdong leaders in Guangzhou yesterday and inspected the economic development zone. He will head on to the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, the Hong Kong South China Morning Post reported.

Beijing sources also reported, “From all accounts, Kim probably stayed at the five-star Bai Tian E hotel near Zhujiang in Guangzhou.”

Japan’s N-TV reported that they filmed Kim arriving at the hotel at 9:00 a.m. yesterday. An N-TV official stated, “The footage was shot from a distance so the picture may not be clear, but we confirmed his stay from many hotel employees who saw Kim.”

Japan’s Yoimuri Shimbun also quoted a hotel employee as saying, “I saw North Korean leader Kim in a group of people who arrived in about 50 cars.”

It was also reported that after visiting Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Kim would head to Beijing on January 15 to meet Hu Jintao and other Chinese leaders.

However, one source claimed that he heard Kim arrived on the outskirts of Beijing on January 10.

Following this bit of news, some are guessing that Kim met with Hu before starting his tour of China’s southern economic zones.

Advanced notice of a “second cataclysmic change?”-

The objective behind Kim’s visit to China that comes two months’ after Hu’s visit to North Korea have been assumed to be expansion of the two countries’ economic cooperation and North Korea’s search for a breakthrough in its conflict with the United States. The United States has accused North Korea of forging currency and has been putting pressure on North Korea.

However, it seems that Kim’s unprecedented extensive tour of southern China signals that the purpose of his visit is not to discuss current affairs, but to prepare a blueprint for larger reform.

Shenzhen, Zhuhai, and Shantou in Guangdong province are China’s first economic zones, which were designated in August 1980. These cities are where Deng Xiaoping’s plans of economic reform and opening were realized. Therefore, it is likely that a significant economic reform plan may materialize after Kim’s return to North Korea.

In January 2001, after Kim visited Pudong, Shanghai, he implemented the “July 1 Economic Management Reform Plan,” which included market economy characteristics, such as the abolition of the rationing system and incentive plans for companies.

In this light, it is pointed out that Kim’s visit to Guangdong province may not be merely a simple educational experience on China’s economic development, but to garner China’s active support in preparing a blueprint for a second economic reform plan.

Moreover, it is also being said that Kim may be able to gain other benefits, namely relief from economic sanctions and other pressures from the United States, by outwardly portraying his will for openness and reform.

Yoo-Seong Hwang yshwang@donga.com