Six-party Talks and Related Nuclear Issues

During the U.S. presidential election campaign, Democratic Party presidential candidate John Kerry suggested talking directly with North Korea as a complementary measure for the six-party talks. Since Bush, who apposed the Kerry’s idea, seems to be assured of his re-election, it is likely that the current multilateral negotiation framework will remain intact.

A source from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade said, “After 9/11, North Korea’s nuclear threats have been one of the major issues.” “The U.S. will rush to resume the suspended six-party talks before the end of the year,” he added.

Whether Six-way Talks Will Resume This Year is Critical to Resolving the Nuclear Issue-

The reason why the Bush administration prefers six-way talks is if the U.S. pursues two-way, direct talks with the North, it would mean that the U.S. might be falling for North Korea’s sophisticated tactics and cause indifference among neighboring countries. It considers a multilateral approach to the nuke issue as more effective in imposing sanctions when North Korea refuses to scrap its nuclear weapons.

These reasons have made the North uneasy with six-party talks since this, it believes, can be used as a tool to oppress Pyongyang. However, North Korea might have to face the Bush administration for another four years.

Jeon Bong-geun, chairman of the Peaceful Cooperation Council, said, “North Korea had dealt with the Clinton administration armed with its notorious tactic of brinkmanship. Since Bush has had apathy to Pyongyang’s tactic and sometimes responded it with extremely strong measures, Pyongyang appears to refrain from using the tactic.” Because of that, experts from inside and outside the government see Pyongyang has no choice but to come back to the negotiation table within this year.

However, haggles over the resumption of talks might last longer than expected if Pyongyang hesitates to decide on its attendance at the meeting in order to gain more leverage in negotiations on nuke issues.

Scenario about North Korean Nuke Threats and Seoul’s Countermeasures-

Government authorities do not think Bush’s ultimate goal—rapid and complete elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons—will shift easily, even though his negotiation style toward Pyongyang might become somewhat moderate as expected in his second-term presidency. With little possibility of change in Washington’s policy on Pyongyang, peaceful resolution to the problem would not come easily unless Pyongyang would strategically change itself.

As long as Pyongyang keeps denying its enriched uranium program which initiated the nuclear crisis, the six-party talks will continue to stall. Also, hardliners in the U.S. might gain momentum to present a North Korean nuke bill with the U.N. Security Council at any time.

If North Korea follows the precedent of Libya, which has decided to give up its nuclear program, things will turn out differently with possible talks of reimbursement for Pyongyang.

Hyong-gwon Pu bookum90@donga.com