The Secrets of Nature are Divulged?

“Will you please tell me what the weather will be like on the 19th?”

With the 16th presidential election just around corner, the Korea Meteorological Administration and private weather forecasting businesses are inundated with calls from the political parties to ask what the weather will be like on the 19th, the Election Day.

“We’ve been getting calls from the political parties asking about the weather on the presidential election day since the beginning of December, and the number increased remarkably recently,” said a KMA official said on the 11th. “This means that the weather is a very important variable to election.”

According to meteorological psychologists, the weather on the election day can exert influence on the psychology of the voters, and thus overall and by-age-group voter turnout may vary.

In general, voter turnout is 15% lower on a rainy day than on a sunny day, and if the temperature falls 5 degrees compared to other years, voter turnout is known to decline by 5% or so.

The Korea Meteorological Administration said on the 11th “On the 19th, the presidential election day, except for the central inland area, the morning low will be above zero across the country.”

The KMA said that on the 18th, a day prior to the presidential election, in Seoul the morning low will be 5 degrees above zero, and the high during the daytime is expected to climb up to 7 degrees above zero, whereas on the 19th, the temperature will be similar to that of the 18th, but in the morning, due to the influence of a low pressure trough, it will snow or rain a little depending on where you are before it clears up in the afternoon.

During the 13th presidential election held on December 16, 1987, the morning low dipped to 4.5 degrees below zero and the day’s high stayed around 4.4 degrees below zero in Seoul. It was quite cold on that day. Voter turnout was 89.2%.

During the 14th presidential election on December 18, 1992, the temperature in Seoul fell below 4.1 degrees below freezing, thereby dipping voter turnout down to 81.9%. In the 15th presidential election that fell on December 18, 1997, the morning low in Seoul was 5.4 degrees below zero, and the day’s high was 9.2 degrees above zero. Though it was warm, it was cloudy and rainy, so voter turnout was no better than 80.7%.

Morning lows in Seoul on December 19 were 1.8 degrees below freezing in 1991, 2.5 degrees below zero in 1992, 9.3 below in 1994, 5.5 degrees below zero in 1996, 7.4 degrees below in 1997, 1.4 degrees below freezing in 2000, and 7.5 degrees in the negative territory for the year 2001.

jefflee@donga.com gdt@donga.com