Lee-Roh Gap Narrows in Opinion Polls

An opinion poll released yesterday indicated that the margin of support between Lee Hoi-chang, presidential candidate of the Grand National Party (GNP), and Roh Mu-hyun, his rival from the Millennium Democratic Party (MDP), has narrowed to 6.8 percentage points.

In a survey commissioned on the 7th by the Korean edition of Newsweek magazine, Roh won 32 percent public support, trailing Lee, who received 38.8 percent, in a two-way race.

Another survey conducted on the 8th by SBS found that 40.1 percent of the respondents supported Lee and 35.9% supported Roh, narrowing the margin of support between the two presidential candidates to 4.2 percent.

Lee garnered about 50% of the public support last month, widening the margin of support against Roh to 11 to 15 percent. But the latest surveys showed that the gap has been narrowed by more than half. In particular the survey conducted by SBS found that if Roh becomes a presidential candidate of the proposed new party, the public support for would be almost same as that for Lee.

The GNP speculates that the approval rating of the two leading presidential candidates are changing as the growing draft dodging scandal involving Lee’s eldest son is poised to deal a blow to the GNP.

Kim Yeong-il, director-general of the GNP said, "Whether it is true or not, voters seem to doubt the moral integrity of Lee as the GNP aims at taking issue with the draft-dodging scandal once again. The GNP analyzes that the long-time MDP supporters are moving to rally behind Roh with the draft-dodging scandal causing a stir once again.

The GNP also thinks that the party`s policy of restraining from taking the offensive against Roh after the June 13 local elections contributed to the surging approval rating of Roh. With these analyses, the GNP sees bring an end to the draft-dodging controversy as the best way to widen the approval ratings between Lee and Roh.

That is why the GNP urged the prosecution to reveal the truth behind the draft-dodging scandal through a prompt and impartial investigation.

The MDP, on the other hand, analyzes that Roh`s approval rating has risen as the party`s draft-dodging offensive against Lee has worked out. It means that the MDP has been freed from the GNP`s offensive aiming at corruption involving sons of President Kim Dae-jung and other officials of the incumbent administration.

Chung Dong-chae, chief secretary of Roh said, "There is possibility that the margin of support between the rival presidential candidates would widen, but Roh`s approval rating bottomed out in the mid July." The MDP thinks that time is on Roh`s side since the confrontation between Lee and Roh becomes clearer as the presidential election draws near. The party expects that in the case that the gap of the public support for the two presidential candidates narrows, non-mainstreamers of the party would not call for the replacement of the presidential candidates or the establishment of a new party.

But some people take a cautious approach saying that it remains to be seen whether Roh`s surging approval is real or not in that the reason behind the narrowed gap was the sagging approval of Lee instead of rising popularity of Roh

Sung-Won Park Jeong-Hun Kim swpark@donga.com jnghn@donga.com