France`s General Election

Can French right-wing parties win the general election as well in the wake of electoral victory in the presidential election? The first round of the two-round parliamentary election will take place on June 9. It is predicted that the center-right party led by French president Jacques Chirac will win overwhelmingly. So far, 8424 candidates filed their candidacy in 577 constituencies including 555 main lands and France-controlled areas. And the competition ratio is one to 15.

An opinion poll conducted by Ipsos shows that the center-right such as the Union for Presidential Majority (UMP) will get 40% of the vote in the first round and the left including the Socialists, the Communists and the Greens will garner 36%, reported a newspaper Lepigaro on June 7.

Candidates who win a majority in the first round of voting will be elected. If there is no candidate with the majority vote in a constituency in the first round, then the second round of voting takes place on June 16. And candidates with the largest number of votes are elected to the five-year term in the National Assembly. To qualify for the second round in a parliamentary election, a candidate must get at least 12.5% of the first-round votes.

According to several opinion polls, the center-right is forecast to win more than 300 seats in the two-round parliamentary election, while the left is projected to garner 170 to 210 seats. If the projection comes true, chances are that the right will dominate the political landscape in West Europe, following Mr. Chirac`s huge victory in presidential election.

As for the National Front (FN) led by the far-right Jean-Marie Le Pen who made a stir in the presidential elections, it is expected to get 12 to 15% of seats in the first round. It is projected that the party can advance into the second round in more than 200 constituencies but will get a mere four to five seats.

It is the first time that the general election takes place after terms of presidential office are reduced to 5 years in order to avoid the repetition of a controversial "cohabitation" government whereby president of one color has shared power with a prime minister of another.

Mr. Chirac appealed to voters to enable the right to win a "true majority" in the parliament for a smooth management of state affairs. 17% of voters who support the left will not vote to prevent the cohabitation, according to one opinion poll.

There is an analysis that since French voters have a traditional tendency to dislike a concentration of power in one party, unexpected results might come out. Lepigaro reported on June 7 that as the first round of parliamentary election draws near, the left is getting more voter support.

Jei-Gyoon Park phark@donga.com