Time to prepare for possible chaos on Korean peninsula

Former U.S. Acting Defense Secretary Chris Miller, considered the most likely defense secretary if former U.S. President Trump Donald makes a comeback, told The Dong-A Ilbo that it is worth considering the freeze-for-relief idea. Regarding the idea of negotiating over disarmament, the former U.S. acting defense secretary said that he is somewhat in favor of those thinking “Why not?” Miller stated that Washington would welcome it if Seoul took a broader perspective. Stressing the significance of an equal partnership between the two allies, he added that it is time that Seoul and Washington should be honest with each other and start discussing whether South Korea still needs 28,500 U.S. forces or whether some change is required.

Miller’s comments signal a fundamental change to the current U.S. government’s Korean Peninsula policy framework if Trump 2.0 starts. Although he made it clear that it was only his own personal opinion, it presumably reflects Trump’s determination to revamp the Biden administration’s policy as an extension of the Trump 1.0 framework. Miller was considered the most likely defense secretary by former President Trump, who commended him for doing a great job by the end of his administration. In “Project 2025,” a collection of policy proposals included in the agenda for Trump 2.0, he wrote in a defense section that South Korea should play a leading role in conventional defense systems against North Korea.

In some sense, his remarks may only give more details of Trump’s policy note regarding the Korean peninsula. The former U.S. president demanded a sharp increase in South Korea's defense cost-sharing contribution while making an effort to highlight a good relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Likewise, Miller emphasized not only Seoul's greater defense contributions but also its bigger responsibilities, and handled North Korea negotiations with a "grand bargain for regional stability” in mind. Asked about Korea's independent nuclear armament, Miller said that Washington would possibly revisit options that were once considered undiscussable. This message can be read as a signal that there could be a significant change in the system of extended deterrence against North Korea based on the alliance.

With a hard-learned lesson from Trump 1.0 in mind, the international community is keeping its guard up against Trump's possible comeback. This can also test South Korea, given that it depends heavily on Washington’s nuclear deterrence, with North Korean nuclear issues still left unaddressed. The country would even have to prepare for the worst-case scenario where Washington’s demand for unreasonable cost-sharing contributions would cause cracks in the alliance while meeting Pyongyang halfway to have no option but to accept its possession of nuclear power as part of the reality. Thorough preparations should be made with all possibilities on the table. Most of all, Seoul must be equipped diplomatically with deterrence and flexibility to keep its alliance with Washington intact and build constructive relationships with its neighbors.