‘Why are we defending the rich country?’

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has hinted that he may withdraw U.S. troops from South Korea if the country does not pay more to support the U.S. troops stationed there. “I want South Korea to treat us properly,” Trump said when asked if he would withdraw troops from South Korea. “We have 40,000 troops (actually, 28,500), and in a somewhat precarious position. It doesn't make sense, why would we defend somebody. They have become a very wealthy country.”

Trump's comments are not new. During his first term, Trump used cuts to the U.S. military as leverage to press Seoul for a five-fold increase in defense spending. Due to such excessive demand, the two nations could not finalize the deal in time, leading to a year-and-a-half-long lapse in the agreement, which was only resolved after the Joe Biden administration took office. The two nation's early start of negotiations this month was also driven by concerns about the ‘Trump risk.’

However, even if South Korea and the U.S. reach an agreement promptly, a second Trump administration will likely demand renegotiation. They may even try to include the costs of joint military exercises and deployment of strategic assets in the bill. Trump's key supporters and aides have advocated for reductions or a change in the role of the U.S. military, saying, “It's time to have an honest conversation about whether we need 28,500 troops in South Korea” (former acting Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller) and “Instead of using the U.S. military as a deterrent to China, we need to consider nuclearizing South Korea” (former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby). These potential changes could significantly impact South Korea's defense capabilities and alliances.

Trump's perception of alliances as transactional relationships is not limited to South Korea. He recently made a stir when he said that European countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) that fail to meet their 2 percent of gross domestic product defense spending commitments would be at the disposal of Russia. “If they don't pay, they're on their own (for defense),” Trump said again in the latest interview.

Trump's chances of winning the presidency six months from now are still 50/50. However, many U.S. allies in Europe and elsewhere are bolstering their own defenses and preparing for a ‘Trump risk’ that could be even more ferocious. In particular, if direct trade between North Korea and the United States is attempted again in the second Trump term, South Korea’s national security may become a bargaining chip. This underscores the crucial need for South Korea to continue efforts to strengthen its self-defense capabilities and become an indispensable ally that is not swayed by any variables.