Desperate measures needed for aging Korea

Due to low fertility and population aging, the number of people over the age of 70 surpassed the number of those in their 20s for the first time last year. The population of individuals aged 70 and over increased to 6.32 million, while the number of people in their 20s fell to 6.2 million, according to the government's latest population census. Next year, the country will become a super-aged society, with more than 20 percent of the population aged 65 or older. Eight of the 17 metropolitan cities and provinces have already entered the super-aged society.

Over 300 trillion won has been invested in the country's fertility budget since 2006, but it has not yielded the desired results. Critics argue that this failure may be attributed to money being spent ineffectively or the implementation of incoherent measures. Above all, the absence of a clear policy target has caused the birthrate policy to drift. It is crucial to establish a realistic fertility target even at this stage. It is worth referencing “Population Vision 2100,” which was recently presented to the Japanese government by the Population Strategy Panel, a group of private-sector experts. According to the report, Japan's population is projected to halve to 63 million by 2100 if the current total fertility rate of 1.26 persists. To maintain a population of 80 million, Japan’s birth rate should be increased to 2.07. It is alarming that the world's 12th most populous country, with 122 million people, has revised its goal to less than 100 million. Equally concerning is the realization that achieving even this revised goal necessitates a significant boost in birth rates.

According to the South Korean government’s estimates, with a current population of 51.33 million, Korea’s population is projected to shrink to 15 million by 2100 - fewer than during the Japanese colonial rule period. What’s worse is that this optimistic projection assumes a fertility rate of 0.98 children, even though the current fertility rate is only 0.7. Only by establishing a minimum population size necessary for national survival, setting a fertility rate target to achieve it, and putting forth all-out efforts, can we prevent “national extinction.”

Even if the fertility rate rebounds, reversing the declining population trend will be challenging. It is necessary to completely redesign local administrative systems and social structures, including defense, education, and welfare, which were originally designed for a population of 50 million. Above all, the demographic structure with fewer working people and more dependents poses a significant burden. As early as this year, the share of the working-age population (15-64 years old) is expected to fall below 70%. We need to raise the age at which young people enter the workforce to the level seen in advanced economies. Additionally, we should maximize the contribution of the female workforce, whose careers are often interrupted by marriage and childbirth, and alter the retirement age culture, preventing people from retiring before age 50. The National Health Insurance, which is expected to run a deficit this year, and the national pension system, projected to run out of funds in 2055, will face disastrous consequences without change. The population crisis cannot be averted without reforms in education, labor, and pension systems.