Kim Jong Un-Putin meeting imminent

The New York Times reported on Monday that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may visit Russia as early as next week to meet President Vladimir Putin. The meeting between the two is expected to be on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum to be held in Vladivostok from Sunday to Wednesday. If the North Korea-Russia summit takes place, it will be the first in four and a half years since 2019, and Kim Jong Un's first overseas visit since then as well. The U.S. White House also said, “We have intelligence that Kim is expecting arms negotiations involving summit-level diplomacy in Russia.”

The purpose of the meeting between Kim and Putin is read as an intention to openly show off close relations between the two leaders and formalize the exchange between North Korea's conventional weapons and Russia's cutting-edge technology, both internally and externally, beyond engaging in deals behind closed doors. The rapid progress of the discussion since the visit by the Russian defense minister to the military parade in North Korea at the end of July proves that the two countries are in an urgent situation. Right now, Russia is struggling due to the depletion of ammunition and munitions to be used in the war in Ukraine, and North Korea is facing technical limitations in developing nuclear and missile weapons. The fact that Russia's newly built Vostochny Cosmodrome and Pier 33, the anchorage for the Pacific Fleet, are selected as visiting spots for Kim Jong Un indicates North Korea's core interest.

As such, the North Korea-Russia talks signal a “dangerous deal.” Although Russia is now in decline, it is still a military power with the largest number of nuclear weapons. Military technologies such as surface-to-air missiles, fighter engines, and submarines are at a level that even China wouldn't mind laying hands on. North Korea wants to acquire military reconnaissance satellites, nuclear-powered submarines, and even intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) reentry technology in return for providing conventional weapons, including ammunition. Russian technologies can provide an opportunity for a high level of advancement that North Korea's increasingly sophisticated nuclear weapons and missiles desperately need. It is evident that this will make North Korea, which is in the habit of ratcheting up provocations and intimidations, become more arrogant outlaws.

Although the North Korea-China-Russia adhesion stemming from the intensified New Cold War trend was somewhat expected, its rapid acceleration will provide an unsettling factor that further shakes the geopolitical landscape. The solidarity between Putin, who has already violently trampled on the sovereignty of neighboring countries, and Kim Jong Un, who is frantic about developing illegal weapons, is triggering red flags around the world. Moreover, Kim may again reveal under his sleeve the flamboyant diplomatic moves he showed against the leaders of South Korea and the U.S. five years ago. This time, Kim may claim himself as an enforcer in the New Cold War confrontation, using Russia as a lever to incite China. Under these circumstances, the Korean government needs to keep a close eye on developments, conduct close cooperation between the ROK, the U.S., and Japan, and devise countermeasures with the international community.