A rush to judgment on North Korea’s situation

South Korean President Park Geun-hye delivered a speech Saturday to mark the country’s Armed Forces Day. Mentioning North Korean soldiers and people, Park said that they can come to the free land of South Korea any time. It is the first time that the South Korean president practically urged North Koreans to flee the country in public, which is the strongest remark to express the will to separate North Korean people from the regime.

The president also stressed the need to prepare for emergencies, noting that the number of defections by North Korea’s core elite and the desertion and pillaging by soldiers are occurring frequently. She must have encouraged the defection of North Koreans based on detailed information she gained as the commander-in-chief. Indeed, South Korea and the U.S. are reportedly modifying the Operation Plan 5029, which includes detailed plans to respond to emergencies related to North Korea.

If the North continues to concentrate all of its resources on nuclear and missile development, it would head towards self-destruction. However, it is concerning that Park’s recent remarks might indicate a hasty judgement on North Korea’s collapse. In the 14th Korea-China-Japan International Symposium recently held by the Hwajeong Peace Foundation, Professor Emeritus Yoon Young-kwan of Seoul National University and Wang Fudong, researcher of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said, "Despite the reign of terror, there are no signs of serous unrest in North Korea, and North Korea policies based on the predictions of the country’s collapse lack rationality." “There have been no significant signs of instability that would indicate a collapse of the regime,” said Vincent Brooks, U.S. Forces Korea commander.

The U.S. has asked countries around the world to sever diplomatic and economic relations with North Korea. However, China and North Korea have been recovering their relations, which had been chilly after the North’s fifth nuclear test. The two countries had their ambassadors attend the events held in Pyongyang and Beijing on Friday to celebrate the 67th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Some predict that North Korea will carry out more provocations such as another nuclear test or missile firing on Oct. 10, the founding anniversary of the Workers’ Party of Korea. The South Korean government and military need to pursue consistent policies of national defense and countermeasures against North Korea’s nuclear threats, preparing for related emergencies.

South Korea’s government and private institutions should be prepared physically and mentally for a massive defection from North Korea. The improvement of treatment, education, support, and management system for North Korean defectors would be a powerful measure to give hope. Detailed measures should be taken to put President Park’s remarks into practice.

허문명논설위원 angelhuh@donga.com