2 Koreas to hold talks on volcanic eruption possibility

The two Koreas will hold talks Tuesday at the Customs, Immigration and Quarantine Office in the South Korean border town of Munsan, Gyeonggi Province, on the potential eruption of Mount Baekdu.

Unification Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung said Monday in Seoul, “We will have a private-sector discussion on a possible joint project including research, field investigation and symposium on Mount Baekdu as proposed by the North`s earthquake authority to the head of the (South) Korea Meteorological Administration.”

○ Preventing eruption

South Korean and Chinese scholars warn that Mount Baekdu could erupt in 2015 or 2016, but little research has been done so far.

Lee Deok-ki, director of earthquake policy at the state-run weather agency, said, “Since approaching Mount Baekdu has been impossible, we`ve only been able to analyze external information including that from China and set up a phonometer observatory that detects an eruption using sound.”

Quake experts say Mount Baekdu`s eruption in the 10th century spewed out 1,000 to 1,500 times more ash than that of last year`s Icelandic volcano. Experts will propose a new system to analyze magma flow beneath Mount Baekdu at Tuesday`s inter-Korean meeting.

Yoon Seong-hyo, a geologist at Pusan National University, said, “Setting up observance equipment on Mount Baekdu and constantly analyzing and monitoring the situation will enable the prediction of the time and size of an eruption three to four days before it occurs. In this way, we can prepare for a natural disaster in advance.”

Yoon and the Korea Meteorological Administration said a magma plumbing system will be established on Mount Baekdu based on the outcome of the experts’ discussion. The system will enable the monitoring of the direction, speed and amount of magma beneath the mountain.

A seismometer will measure seismic waves to identify the location and power of magma, something which the weather agency said is crucial since volcanic eruptions are followed by frequent earthquakes.

In addition, elastic wave equipment will be set up to gauge the earth’s surface and examine the wavelength; an angle meter to observe the inflation of the earth`s surface; and a gravimeter to examine whether the gravity level is lowered when the earth’s density is lowered by magma coming out of the surface.

Hwang Sang-koo, professor of petrology and volcanology at Andong University in South Gyeongsang Province, said, “Criteria for detecting eruption signs should be set up first through joint research with North Korea. Then measures for all potential eruption scenarios need to be devised based on that data.”

○ Connection to nuclear tests

Seoul says the project is a private-sector matter but is known to consider this a chance to investigate the link to North Korea’s nuclear test. Pyongyang has conducted nuclear tests at Punggye, Kilju County in North Hamkyong Province, and is digging tunnels at a nuclear test site there.

Whether additional nuclear tests by the North will lead to Mount Baekdu erupting is of common interest to both Seoul and Pyongyang.

In October last year, South Korea`s parliamentary inspection of government offices found that the North`s nuclear tests can lead to volcanic eruptions at Mount Baekdu, so the South Korean government and scholars have warned over an eruption. Punggye is 110 kilometers away from Mount Baekdu but distance is not important.

Hong Tae-kyung, professor of earth system engineering at Yonsei University in Seoul, said, “A volcanic eruption can be determined at a distance from the location where energy is released due to nuclear tests and eruption, but is more determined by how much magma is stored beneath the mountain.”

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