IAEA Inspection Could Begin By July 3

High-level working inspectors of the IAEA will visit Pyongyang from today to June 30 to discuss the process for verifying and confirming the shutdown and sealing of the nuclear facility at Yongbyon.

IAEA Deputy Director General Olli Heinonen, the chief delegate, said to reporters in Beijing on June 25, “The upcoming visit is a follow-up measure for a long journey (toward the shutdown of North Korea’s nuclear facilities),” adding, “We’ll negotiate with the North the specifics for verifying and confirming the shutdown of the Yongbyon nuclear facility.” But he also said, “It is not clear if we’ll visit the Yongbyon nuclear facility.”

It seems that the nuclear facilities targeted for shutdown will include the five-megawatt nuclear reactor, the treatment facility and the nuclear fuel rod production facility in Yongbyon, which are subject to be frozen according to the 1994 Agreed Framework, and the 50-megawatt nuclear reactor in Yongbyon and the 200-megawatt nuclear reactor in Taechon, which are under construction.

The Mainichi Shimbun said yesterday that it is highly likely that the five-megawatt nuclear reactor and a treatment facility will be sealed by the North. The newspaper said that the six countries participating in the six-party talks agree on prioritizing of the shutdown of the two facilities.

If the discussion goes smoothly, the inspection and verification team of the IAEA is expected to launch an “inspection” on July 3 or 4. The team will stop the operation of the nuclear reactor and cover or lock the reactor and attach a sticker to it so that the North cannot re-operate it or take it out. Also, they will install surveillance cameras to prevent the North from harming the seal and leave two or three agents to monitor it.

However, chances are that the North will be passive about accepting the IAEA’s activities. For registration and disablement of nuclear facilities, it is essential for the IAEA to verify Pyongyang’s past nuclear activities, including measuring how much plutonium has been extracted since 2002, and to identify parts of the nuclear facilities. However, the North could cover up or destroy evidence to conceal the big picture concerning its nuclear program.

After walking away from the IAEA in 1994 when the first nuclear crisis broke out, the North partially normalized its relations with the international organization the same year according to the Agreed Framework. But it again kicked out IAEA inspectors in 2003 after the second nuclear crisis emerged over its HEU program in 2002.

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