Experts Discuss Status of North Korea’s Nuclear Program

-North Korea is working hard on normalizing diplomatic ties with the U.S. There is a view that the normalization of diplomatic ties between the two countries might threaten the Kim Jong Il regime by exposing North Korea to the outside world.

Professor Kang: The bilateral relationship, despite many ups and downs, has remained consistent, at least in one respect, since the 1994 Geneva agreement. That is, if North Korea gives up its nuclear program, the U.S. is willing to normalize its relations with the communist country. This basic principle has never changed for the last 13 years. The only problem was who goes first. In this regard, North Korea’s nuclear issue is different from the Iranian one. On Iran’s nuclear development, the Middle Eastern country and the U.S. are completely disagreeing with each other.

Certainly there is always the possibility that the normalization of ties with America might cause instability to the Kim Jong Il regime. However, it has no other good choice. Its problems will never go away even if the DPRK maintains its nuke program, shutting itself from the outside world. North Korea will seek to reduce security threats through an improved relationship with the U.S. and carry out selective economic reforms and opening policies, which the U.S. should keep a close eye on. Opening the economy might lead to less control of the Kim regime over North Korea and degrade that country’s unity of leadership.

―Since the February 13 agreement, N.K.-U.S. relations have shown signs of thawing. Many raise the possibility of a summit between North Korea and the U.S. Do you think it is plausible?

Professor Friedberg: Chances of a summit between Presidents Bush and Kim are pretty slim. Bush seems to have come to the conclusion that a “deal with” Kim is best. Still, it is questionable whether he wants to embrace Kim as a negotiating party. Washington believes that the president is not that desperate to meet with Kim Jong Il.

mickey@donga.com