Unification Minister Lee’s Suspicious Optimism

Rumors are circulating that there might have been a behind-the-scenes agreement between the two Koreas regarding the 20th North-South Ministerial Talks which ended in Pyongyang on March 2.

The biggest concern of the talks is when, how much and on what condition rice and fertilizer should be provided to the North, but there was no mention of that in the joint statement that was released after the talks.

The remarks made by Unification Minister Lee Jae-jung, the South Korean chief envoy to the talks, after finishing the talks and coming back to Seoul added to the speculation, including his comment that, “Fertilizer aid will be 300,000 tons and rice aid will be 400,000 tons. Both sides agreed on that.”

After his remarks sparked a controversy, he explained, “I just said what the North requested.” But the opinion that there must have been an additional agreement between the two Koreas is gaining support. What did they talk about behind the scenes?

Lee had been optimistic about the talks’ results during his stay in Pyongyang, saying, “My flight to Seoul will depart on time.”

On March 1 when the talks were taking place, he said, “Despite the serious issues involved, including the North Korean nuclear tests, both sides are making efforts to make the talks successful. In a broader view, I think reaching an agreement will not be that difficult.”

It is likely that such confidence is based on the fact that the government had already decided to give rice and fertilizer to the North.

A former senior official who was involved in the talks said, “Considering that rice and fertilizer aid was a main inducement of the talks, the agreement to resume ministerial talks reached in Gaesung on February 15 was as good as an agreement on rice and fertilizer aid.”

The government promised the North 300,000 tons of fertilizer instantly, which is considered to be the reason why those talks did not fail.

Lee’s remarks about rice and fertilizer aid could reveal a behind-the-scenes deal made during the North-South ministerial talks. The North had been requesting 400,000-500,000 tons of rice and 300,000-350,000 tons of fertilizer at the talks every year.

However, the government had never promised rice and fertilizer aid officially through the ministerial talks except for its remark, “The South provided food to the North out of fraternity and for humanitarian reasons,” in the joint statement of the 15th ministerial talks. The Committee for the Promotion of Economic Cooperation reached this agreement via Red Cross talks and deliberations after the ministerial talks. However, it is more likely that an agreement was reached in the ministerial talks, with additional formal talks and working-level discussions taking care of the final details.

Critics point out that if Lee had agreed to aid knowing that rice and fertilizer aid will be paid for by the North-South cooperation fund, which requires the National Assembly’s consent, it would be an abuse of authority.

Some have raised the possibility of the government suggesting a summit meeting in return for the aid to the North.

taewon_ha@donga.com