Ex-Seoul Mayor Tops Presidential Poll

Either former Seoul mayor, Lee Myung-bak, or former Grand National Party (GNP) chairwoman, Park Geun-hye would beat former Prime Minister, Goh Kun in the presidential election if it were held today according to a poll. Lee Myung-bak placed first with 44.9 percent of votes in the poll, beating all other candidates from the ruling party and the opposition party. The Korea Research Center (KRC) also held a similar poll on December 27 and 28, asking 1,515 people countrywide which presidential candidate they would vote for. Lee Myung-bak received 44.9 percent of the votes, beating Park Geun-hye, who received 17.3 percent. Goh Kun (14.1 percent), former Gyeonggi Governor Sohn Hak-gyu (3.3 percent), Kim Geun-tae (1.8 percent) Chung Dong-young (1.5 percent), Chung Un-chan (1.5 percent), representative of the Democratic Labor Party, Kwon Young-ghil (1.4 percent), and Won Hee-ryong (0.3 percent) trailed behind.

In a poll asking, which opposition party candidate the participants support, Goh Kun got the most votes with 32.7 percent of the vote. Kang Keum-sil (11.3%), Chung Dong-young (6.3%), Chung Un-chan (4.7%), Yu Si-min (4.7%), and Kim Geun-tae (4.5%) trailed behind.

Lee Myung-bak’s edge-

The polls show that Lee Myung-bak would receive 61.2 percent of the vote, when faced with Goh Kun and Kwon Young-ghil, who would receive 24.8 percent and 5.6 percent each. Lee Myung-bak would single-handedly outdo Goh Kun by 36.5 percent.

Lee Myung-bak would not only win, but he would win in every single age bracket. He placed first in all regions, with the exception of only Gwangju and Jeolla Provinces.

In these regions, while Goh Kun received most of the votes with 66 percent when matched against Park Geun-hye and Kwon Young-ghil, he only managed a single-digit lead over Lee Myung-bak (38.6 percent) when matched against Lee Myung-bak and Kwon Young-ghil.

Even more surprising was that Uri Party supporters who said they would vote for Goh Kun if he were matched against Park Geun-hye and Kwon Young-ghil opted for Lee Myung-bak when matched against Lee Myung-bak and Goh Kun. Democratic Labor Party and People First Party supporters, who preferred Goh Kun to Park Geun-hye and Kwon Young-ghil, turned to Lee Myung-bak, when he was matched with Goh Kun and Kwon Young-ghil.

Lee Myung-bak received the most support from people in their forties (50.6 percent) and he led in every single age bracket. He received the most support among white-collar workers (51.8 percent) and the self-employed (50.2 percent) and was in the lead in every single profession bracket.

Goh Kun has an advantage over Park Geun-hye-

In a poll comparing Goh Kun, Park Geun-hye, and Kwon Young-ghil, there was not much difference between Park Geun-hye, who received 42.1 percent of the votes, and Goh Kun, who received 40.3 percent.

The situation was about the same in the poll held by Dong-a Ilbo on September 29 last year. The race was very tight with Park Geun-hye receiving 22 percent and Goh Kun receiving 21.2 percent.

Park Geun-hye has a following in voters in their twenties and voters in their fifties and above. Voters in their thirties and forties preferred Goh Kun. Goh Kun had a 4.5 percent lead in men in their forties, and a 9 percent lead among blue-collar workers.

Park Geun-hye led in the Incheon and Gyeonggi areas (45.6 percent), Daegu and Gyeongbuk provinces (56.6 percent), Busan and Gyeongnam provinces (48.6 percent), and Gangwon and Jeju (44.5 percent). Goh Kun maintained a lead in Seoul (45 percent), and Gwangju and Jeolla provinces (66 percent). Members from all political parties save for the GNP preferred Goh Kun to Park Geun-hye.

GNP supporters are divided-

Supporters of GNP would rather vote for Goh Kun, the candidate from the opposing party, if they were not able to vote for their candidate of choice from the GNP.

680 voters said they would vote for Lee Myung-bak over other candidates both in the ruling party and the opposing parties. Of these voters, 94.8 percent said they would pick Lee Myung-bak if he ran against Goh Kun and Kwon Young-ghil. Surprisingly, only 42.2 percent of them would pick Park Geun-hye, a candidate from the same party as Lee Myung-bak, if she was matched against Goh Kun and Kwon Young-ghil. 41.6 percent of them said they would vote for Goh Kun instead.

This phenomenon holds true for Park Geun-hye supporters as well. 262 voters said they would vote for Park Geun-hye over other candidates from the ruling party and the opposing parties. 91.8 percent of them said they would vote for Park Geun-hye over Goh Kun and Kwon Young-ghil. Only 48.1 percent of them would vote for Lee Myung-bak if they had to choose between Lee Myung-bak, Goh Kun, and Kwon Young-ghil. 30.8 percent said they would rather support Goh Kun. This shows that party supporters are divided on their candidate of choice.

taylor55@donga.com gun43@donga.com