Kim Jong Il’s Sudden Visit to China

The South Korean government is noticing that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il visited China as the six-way talks drifted and as the conflict between North Korea and the U.S. intensified over possible North Korean counterfeiting.

Observers believe that Kim may be visiting China to reverse the diplomatic situation because he is fully aware that he cannot ignore the talks, though he insists that he won’t join them while the subject of U.S. economic sanctions.

In October 2005, Kim confirmed his intention to abide by the joint statement from the fourth round of the six-party talks when China’s President Hu Jintao visited North Korea, and expressed his intention to participate in further talks.

Kim Seong-han, a professor of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, said, “North Korea is having a much harder time due to U.S. economic sanctions than expected. Because of that, it is highly likely that it will discuss the nuclear issue.”

In addition, North Korea may be thinking that, because it was Chinese investigators who broke the Macao-based Banco Delta Asia case that raised North Korean money laundering and counterfeiting suspicions, it needs to hear what China has on its mind.

First, China may urge North Korea to return to the six-party talks under its policy that bogus bills and the talks are separate ones. And it is likely that China will inform Kim of the investigation outcome.

The South Korean government expects the North to return to the six-way talks after handling the fake currency issue by punishing those involved and promising to make sure the same thing will not happen again. Whatever the outcome, Kim’s visit to China may be a chance to weigh China’s leverage over North Korea.

North Korea, China discuss economic cooperation-

Kim Jong Il may discuss economic cooperation with China in depth. He visited and experienced economically-developed places, such as Shanghai, in person during his visit to China in the past.

It is noteworthy that Kim is visiting China a couple of months after Hu’s visit to North Korea. It is known that Hu said in a meeting with Kim when he visited North Korea in October 2005 that China is willing to provide more assistance to North Korea if the North opens its economy.

North Korea is currently facing U.S. economic sanctions and a World Food Program food aid suspension. It also has a number of projects and industrial projects in need of financing, reconstruction, and repair, according to a New Year’s editorial from three newspapers in North Korea.

Wen Wei Po, a Hong Kong newspaper, reported in October 2005 that China plans to provide long-term assistance worth $2 billion to help North Korea’s economic recovery. North Korea Deputy Prime Minister Roh Du Cheol reached an agreement with China to co-develop offshore crude oil when he visited China late last year.

Jong-Koo Yoon jkmas@donga.com