The Democratic Party Superior in the Survey, and the Republican Party Superior in the Situation

▽Current spread of seats and electoral districts=The Senate, which has a term of 6 years, newly elects 34 Senators, which is one third of the total 100, this time. The spread of seats in the Senate is △49 for the Republican Party, △49 for the Democratic Party, △1 independence, and △1 empty because the Democratic Senator Paul Welster (Minnesota) die on the 25th due to an air plane crash. The two-year term House newly elects the all-435 Congressmen. The current spread of seats is △223 Republicans, △208 Democrats, △1 independence, and △3 empty seats.

▽Survey=According to a survey that the Gallop and the CNN did in cooperation and publicized on the 25th, 49% of the respondents said the Democratic Party and 46% said the Republican Party to a question ‘for which candidate from what party do you vote if the election happens today.’ This survey was done on the 21st and 22nd for 1,568 people. The margin of the error was ±4%.

The Gallop predicted based on this survey that the Democrats would take 221 seats and the Republicans would have 214 seats, so the Democratic Party would regain its status as the Majority. Prior to this, △Democrats got 48% and △Republicans got 47% at the survey on the 3rd ~ the 6th, and △Democrats got 50% and △Republicans got 46% at the survey on the 20th ~ 22nd of last month.

On the other hand, according to the survey by the Newsweek on the 24th and the 25th, 46% of the potential voters said they would vote for the Republican Party and 43% said the Democratic Party. However, 43% of the respondents who actually registered to vote said the Democratic Party and 41% said the Republican Party; therefore, it showed that both parties were competing within the margin of errors (±3%). If this situation continues, the Majorities of both the Senate and the House seem to be decided by just few seats.

▽Situation=The Congress Quarterly, which exclusively reports and analyzes the Congressional activities, analyzes the situations of the 34 electoral districts of the Senate that ▽the Republican Party is superior in 17 districts, ▽11 for the Democratic Party, and ▽both Parties are competing in 10 districts.

The State of South Dakota out of the competing districts draws attention because the Congressman John Tune, who was recommended by the President Bush himself, and the Senator Tim Johnson, who was supported by the Democratic Senate Leader Thomas Dashley, are fighting a proxy war for the leaders of both Parties. The State of New Jersey, where the Senate Robert Torisally (Democratic) left the senate in the middle of the term due to an absurdity accusation, Arkansas, New Hampshire, and Missouri are the districts where it is not easy to read ‘voting preferences.’

▽The issues and prediction=The most interested issues are the problems concerning everyday life like economy, medicine, and annuity and problems in their districts other than national security issues like the Iraqi War. Those are the issues that the Democrats prefer, but the Republican Party fights right back like the President Bush himself mentions the economy.

There were many cases that the reigning Party, which won the Presidential Election, lost the interim elections. Throughout the 20th century, there were only 3 cases that the reigning Party won the interim elections as well. The Democratic Party expects the pattern, which the voters want to check the Government through the Congress, repeats this time, too. On the other hand, the Republican Party is confident that they will grasp both the Senate and the House with the help of the popularity of the President Bush.

The variable is the voting rate. The workers and minorities, which is the foundation of the Democratic Party, have low voting rate, but the supporters of the Republican Party has high voting rates. It is predicted that the voting rate for this interim election will be lower than that of the 1998 with 35.5% due to the apathy of the voters.

Ki-Heung Han eligius@donga.com