Korean Peninsula feels the impact of 'Trump Typhoon'

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán visited the United States earlier this month and met with former President Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago mansion in Florida. After the meeting, Orbán said, “Trump has a very detailed plan to end the Ukraine-Russia war. Trump said he wouldn’t give a dime if he came back and then he would end the war.” If the United States does not provide money to Ukraine, Europe will not be able to provide funds, and the war will eventually end.

Since last year, Trump has declared, “If I were President, I could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours.” According to Orbán's message, Trump's magic of 'ending the war within 24 hours' is a very easy way to cut off support for Ukraine and force ceasefire negotiations with Russia. This Trumpian solution of sacrificing Ukraine to Russia is already working. It is difficult to predict when the security budget package, including support for Ukraine, will be processed as it is tied up in the U.S. Congress.

Trump is already shaking up the world order with just the possibility of his return to power. European countries are already grappling with the nightmare scenario of Trump's potential withdrawal from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). While each country is hastily increasing its defense budget, Europe, which has long relied on the United States for its command structure, power, and intelligence, is unable to establish its own integrated defense system in a short period of time. Meanwhile, figures like Orbán, often dubbed 'Little Trump,' are amplifying their pro-Russian actions and stoking conflict within Europe.

Trump's influence extends beyond Europe. Former White House National Security Council chief of staff Fred Fleitz, who attended the Trump-Orbán meeting, stated on the Voice of America (VOA), “It is clear that Trump will resume personal diplomacy with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.” Additionally, he suggested, “It will be a significant achievement” if Trump convinces Kim Jong Un to halt the supply of weapons to Russia for the conflict in Ukraine. This indicates that Trump could engage in a 'three-way game' involving the two authoritarian leaders of North Korea and Russia.

In this manner, resuming U.S.-North Korea negotiations following Trump's second-term inauguration seems to be a predetermined course of action. However, it remains unclear whether Kim Jong Un, who had a bitter experience dealing with Trump five years ago, will readily comply. This uncertainty perhaps explains the frequent mention of 'gifts' to be offered to North Korea. Former Deputy Secretary of Defense Richard Lawless, also speaking on VOA, remarked, “North Korea is indeed a nuclear weapons state. Acknowledging this fact serves as the foundation for all discussions.” The proposal suggests that by recognizing North Korea as an 'unofficial nuclear state,' akin to India and Pakistan, it may be persuaded to come to the negotiating table.

The likelihood of Trump's reelection still stands at 50/50. Nevertheless, the Korean Peninsula has already fallen within the ambit of the 'Trump Typhoon.' Reflecting on Trump's first term, few of his impromptu ideas materialized. What proved most distressing were Trump's capriciousness, idiosyncrasies, and unpredictable nature. Predictions for Trump's second term portend tumultuous upheavals in the established order and the extreme disruption of values. As we rely on the U.S. nuclear deterrent, it behooves us to arm ourselves with adaptability and nimbleness, grounded in a composed perception of reality and steadfast principles and values. With the U.S. presidential election just seven months away, uncertainty looms.