Turkey’s Erdogan opened path to potential lifelong presidency

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the 69-year-old President of Turkey, clinched victory in the presidential run-off election on Sunday (local time), reaffirming his stronghold on power. His political tenure, spanning two decades as Prime Minister and President since 2003, has effectively paved the way for what could become a 'lifetime rule.’

After tallying 99.85% of the votes on Monday, the Turkish election commission declared Erdogan victorious, having secured 52.16% of the votes. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the Republican People's Party leader representing a coalition of six opposition parties, trailed behind with 47.84% of the votes.

Erdogan's triumph comes amidst challenging circumstances, including stubbornly high inflation, a low-interest rate policy, and an economic crisis deepened by a massive southern earthquake in February. However, by anchoring his campaign in Islamic and nationalist values, Erdogan seized victory, advocating for a 'strong Turkey' exerting robust influence in neighboring regions. The Wall Street Journal noted his successful portrayal as a 'mediating leader' during the Ukraine war amid escalating tensions between the West and Russia, elevating Turkey's global stature.

This victory solidifies Erdogan's rule until 2028. However, pre-existing constitutional amendments could potentially extend his presidency by another five years if he emerges victorious in an early election during his presidency. In theory, this could see his rule enduring until 2033. This consolidation of power, founded on democratic processes, has been interpreted by some observers as a significant milestone in the evolution of 'neo-authoritarian' politics.

Erdogan's anticipated adherence to an 'anti-American, pro-Russian' stance could potentially impact the coherence of the West's sanctions against Russia, triggering fluctuations in the global security landscape. Despite being a NATO member, Turkey has defied participating in Western sanctions against Russia, choosing to sell weapons to Ukraine but reinforcing its economic ties with Russia.


Sung-Hwi Kang yolo@donga.com