Early voting for general elections reaches highest level

The voter turnout for early voting held on Friday and Saturday before the April 10 general elections was 31.28%, representing 13,849,043 out of 44,280,011 voters. Though lower than the early voting rate of 36.9% in the presidential election two years ago, it is 4.59 percentage points higher than the 26.69% in the 2020 general elections. This was the first time in history that the early voting rate exceeded 30% in general elections. The People Power Party argued that the active participation of conservatives, who had been passive in early voting, boosted voter turnout. At the same time, the Democratic Party asserted that the people's voice yearning for a leadership change was reflected in the early voting.

An increase in early voting turnout is only meaningful when leading to an increase in total voter turnout. When voter turnout in presidential and general elections declined after the democratic movement in 1987, the introduction of the early voting system in 2014 reversed overall voter turnout. Despite the highest-ever early voting rate in the most recent presidential election, the total voting rate decreased from 77.2% to 77.1%, signaling the limited effect of boosting the total voting rate through higher early voting.

The upcoming general elections is the third of its kind since the early voting system was introduced. When the early voting rate for the 2016 general elections increased from 12.19% to 26.69% in 2020, the total voter turnout rose from 58.0% to 66.2%, with the increase being much smaller than the increase in the early voting rate. The increase in early voting rate over the previous general elections is 4.59 percentage points, and it isn't easy to know whether it will be able to lead to an increase in the total voter turnout. Even if it does lead to an increase, the impact is expected to be minimal.

Analysis showed that early voting rates for the 2020 general and 2022 presidential elections were high due to concerns about infection during the pandemic. In hindsight, the growth may have been attributable to voters becoming accustomed to early voting and preferring to choose a date to vote. However, once the early voting turnout reaches a certain level, its impact on increasing the overall voting rate will be limited.

The high early voting turnout in the 2020 general elections led to a landslide victory for the Democratic Party, while the high early voting turnout in the presidential election led to a win for President Yoon Suk Yeol. Therefore, a high early voting rate would not necessarily be advantageous to a certain political party. Voters who vote on the original election day should be wary of being influenced by political interpretations when casting votes.